Game Preview: Pitt Basketball vs. Drexel – November 28, 2020 – 1pm

Pitt hits the court today in an attempt to get their season back on track after a bad 80-70 home loss against Saint Francis (Pa.) on Nov. 25.

Pitt fans exploded in frustration after the game, and it is noteworthy that the Panthers have seemingly had one of these “out-of-left-field” losses against an inferior opponent each year under Jeff Capel. In 2018, Pitt lost a home game to Niagara; last season, the Panthers lost to Nicholls State at home; this year, the Panthers got rolled by the Red Flash in their home opener.

Still, it is important to remember the context:

It's notable that Pitt hoops ranks 155th in the country in roster experience (per @kenpomeroy).

That's not an excuse for what happened on Wednesday, but it's a reminder that this is a very young team. They'll struggle at times this year but there's plenty of room for growth.

— DreamBackfield.com Hoops (@PittHoops) November 27, 2020

There is no excuse for what happened at the Pete on Wednesday. Pitt was unprepared for competition; its best and most experienced players struggled; and it let an inferior team which lost its best two scorers from a year ago dominate them on the defensive end all night.

Still, this is a very young team. Of the 11 players who got minutes on Wednesday, only three were upperclassmen–Xavier Johnson, Au’Diese Toney, and Terrell Brown. Five were playing their first ever game for Pitt.

Capel and his staff are still learning about this roster and who they can trust, especially in this COVID-shortened offseason which prohibited them from scrimmaging against other teams as they ordinarily would before the new season. In that regard, I think that there will still be growing pains throughout the rest of the out-of-conference season, and the best hope right now is that Pitt finds a solid group of rotational players to take the brunt of the minutes heading into the conference schedule in a few weeks.

The Panthers have a chance to start to turn things around today, as they face off against the Drexel Dragons this afternoon, Nov. 28, at 1 p.m. at the Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh, Pa.

Fast Facts

• According to Sports-Reference’s historical matchup finder, today’s game marks the first Pitt vs. Drexel basketball game going back to at least 1949-50.
• The Dragons have not finished better than 0.500 since 2013-14, when they finished 16-14. However, their last real success came in 2010-11, when they finished 29-7, including a 16-2 record in the Colonial conference. However, they narrowly missed out on the NCAA Tournament.
• Drexel’s last NCAA Tournament appearance came in 1996 as a 12-seed, when they lost in the second round against Syracuse.

Players to watch:

Drexel – Camren Wynter

Winter, a junior guard, was Drexel’s leading scorer in 2019-20, posting 15.7 points per game while shooting 35.5 percent from three-point range, to go along with 5.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per contest. This was good enough to land him on the All-CAA second team last season as a sophomore, and the returning junior will be sure to give Pitt fits.

I would expect the Drexel offense to run through Wynter, and I look for him to be the primary offensive facilitator for the Dragons, who also return their second leading scorer from a year ago in senior forward James Butler.

As we saw on Wednesday, when Pitt focused its efforts on shutting down Saint Francis’ Myles Thompson, players like Ramiir Dixon-Conover and Bryce Laskey shined, and were able to create open shots around the perimeter leading to easy buckets.

For that reason, I’d also keep an eye on Coletrane Washington (from Sewickley, Pa.), who shot 43.9 percent from deep last year and who could give Pitt problems from deep. With plenty of attention sure to be paid to Wynter and Butler, a role player and sharpshooter like Washington could find himself with plenty of opportunities in one-on-one situations.

Pitt – The Bigs

For the first time in at least a few seasons, Pitt has a pretty deep frontcourt, with senior Terrell Brown, sophomore Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, and freshmen John Hugley and Max Amadasun. With the exception of Amadasun, each of the big men got into the game against Saint Francis and played decent minutes.

Hugley drew the start in the season opener, and led the big men with 20 minutes, while Brown and Coulibaly played 10 minutes apiece. It was a mixed bag for Hugley, as he scooped up a solid eight rebounds in his time on the floor, but turned the ball over four times, committed three fouls, and scored just seven points on 3-for-9 shooting.

In fact, when Hugley was on the floor, 28 percent of all offensive possessions ended with him (either by making a shot, committing a turnover, or missing a shot that was rebounded by Saint Francis). That is a huge offensive role for a freshman in his first game, and speaks to Capel’s confidence in Hugley.

However, Hugley clearly struggled offensively, and his 64 ORtg (offensive rating – a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions Hugley creates) was the lowest of any Panther who took more than one shot. It is going to be really hard for any team to win when they’re unable to score from the paint, and Hugley struggled mightily with that against Saint Francis. Still, he snagged four offensive boards in 20 minutes, and clearly has value on the floor on the offensive end in that regard.

Meanwhile, Coulibaly posted an ORtg of 165 with four points on 2-for-3 shooting, and five rebounds; Brown posted an ORtg of 118 with five points, two rebounds, and two blocks. Further, Brown’s 21.1 percent blk% (a measure of all opponent two-point attempts that the player blocked) highlights the value that he provides on the defensive interior.

Given Hugley’s struggles and the relative offensive successes of Coulibaly and Brown, combined with the defensive presence that Brown specifically provides, it will be interesting to see how Capel breaks down the minutes for the big men. I still expect that Hugley will start, but I would look for either Coulibaly or Brown to increase their minutes a bit. And frankly, I think that Brown should be on the floor to provide Pitt a much-needed defensive presence in the paint to deter inside scoring chances.

The Odds

According to ESPN, Pitt has a 81.5 percent chance of winning tonight’s game. In KenPom’s college basketball rankings, Pitt sits at no. 98 in the country, a drop of 14 spots since it opened as no. 84 before the loss to Saint Francis (Pa.) on Wednesday. Drexel is currently ranked no. 166 in the KenPom system. The game tips off at 1p.m. EST and will be broadcast on ACCNX.

What do you think will happen today? Sound off on the message boards, and follow us on Twitter! We’ll be discussing Pitt hoops throughout the game.