Game Preview: Miami

Game Eight: Pitt (5-2) vs. Miami (3-4)

Saturday, October 26 at 12:00 p.m.

Series Record: Miami leads 26-11-1

Last Game: Miami won 24-3 (2018)

Line: Pitt Favored by 6

This weekend’s opponent reminds me a lot of the team that Pitt went up against last week. Like Syracuse, Miami came into the season expecting to compete for a division title and a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes (and the Orange) things haven’t really gone according to script since the games started being played. After opening the season with a close losses to Florida and North Carolina, they got back to .500 with wins over FCS Bethune-Cookman and Central Michigan. Since then though they sandwiched an upset of Virginia with bad losses against the Techs. Against Virginia Tech they turned the ball over 5 times and fell behind 28-0 before coming back to only lose 42-35. Last week, they faced rebuilding Georgia Tech and lost in overtime to the Yellow Jackets. 

Miami now sits at 3-4 after a season that began with promise and one has to wonder if new coach Manny Diaz is in over his head. It’s also no guarantee that they’ll even qualify for a bowl given that their matchup with Florida International on November 23 looks to be the only remaining game that they’d be favored in as of now. It’s not a stretch to say that Miami may already be in must-win mode with barely half of the season played. That of course makes them dangerous when they come into Heinz Field for Homecoming this weekend. Between that and the fact that Miami remains a dangerous and talented team despite their record (just ask Virginia) makes this likely to be a closer game than it should be on paper.

Offense

Miami came into the season with a Quarterback controversy from Day 1. There were three realistic candidates to be the Hurricanes’ starting Quarterback this season. The favorite to win the battle was Ohio State transfer Tate Martell, but redshirt Sophomore N’Kosi Perry had been the starter for most of the previous season. Neither ended up getting the job initially though as redshirt Freshman Jarren Williams was named starter for the season opening game against Florida. Williams performed very good through the first 4 games, completing 73.3% of his passes for 1027 yards. He had 7 touchdowns and no interceptions and was averaging 8.85 yards per attempt. However, he threw 3 interceptions early against Virginia Tech, prompting a change to Perry who nearly led a comeback against the Hokies. Perry took over as starter after that, but both saw action last week against Georgia Tech as both were battling injuries. As of this writing Manny Diaz has yet to announce a starter for Saturday, but regardless of who starts, they will be pretty banged up even before the Pitt defense gets a crack at them. Not helping matters for the Hurricanes has been a porous Offensive Line. Only 3 other teams have given up more than Miami’s 31 sacks allowed.

Also banged up is Miami’s starting Running Back Deejay Dallas. The Junior has rushed for 487 yards so far this season and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He is easily on pace to best his career high in yardage in a season (617 last year). However, he came out of last weekend’s game after only 3 carries and didn’t return. While he’s to make the trip to Pittsburgh, it’s very much up in the air whether he will play or how limited he will be if he does play. His backup Cam’ron Harris had a very good day in his absence though, rushing for 136 yards on only 18 carries. However, behind Harris there is little proven production from the other Running Backs. The two other Running Backs that have recorded rushes this season have only a total of 10 carries for 50 yards.

The Miami receiving corps is also thinner, as Jeff Thomas, one of their top targets for the past 2 and a half seasons and primary deep threat, will miss the game for a suspension. The unspecified violation of team rules forced him to miss last week’s game as well and it was announced earlier this week that he would be out this weekend as well. With Thomas out, the top Wide Receivers are Buffalo transfer K.J. Osborn and Mike Harley. Osborn leads the team with 4 touchdown receptions and also has 27 receptions for 324 yards. Harley has contributed 23 receptions for 266 yards himself. Miami’s top target in the passing game is actually their Tight End Brevin Jordan though. The Sophomore leads the team in receptions (28) and receiving yards (438).

Defense

Miami has been synonymous with a tough defenses in recent years, and that’s still the case this season despite the rough season. They’re a Top 30 defense in terms of Points per game (20.4/27th), Yards per game (298.3/19th), and Yards per play (4.7/20th). Up front the Defensive Line is led by first-year starter Gregory Rousseau who shares the team lead in tackles for loss (7.5) and sacks (5). He also has two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. Also making an impact is Defensive End Trevon Hill a grad transfer from Virginia Tech who has 5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks himself.

Backing up the line will be a Linebacking corps that’s (once again) a little thin. Starting Weakside Linebacker Michael Pinckney won’t play after getting injured against Georgia Tech. The senior has been very valuable for the Hurricanes’ defense, sharing the team lead in tackles for loss (7.5). However, starting in place of him will be Zach McCloud who has had significant playing time in recent seasons, but was hoping to use a redshirt this season. They will also have the services of Senior Shaquille Quarterman. The 2018 1st-team All-ACC Linebacker has been a longtime starter and is well on his way to another standout season in his final year.

Cornerback Trajan Bandy was the only returning starter in the Secondary. The Junior creates havoc all over the field with a team-leading 5 pass break-ups, a forced fumble and recovery, and 3 sacks. However, he may be topped by Safety Gurvan Hall, Jr. The first year starter has had a breakout season with 3.5 tackles for loss (with 2 sacks) and 2 pass break-ups to go with 44 tackles, 2nd only to Quarterman on the team.

Special Teams

The Hurricanes have a kicking problem to say the least. Bubba Baxa was the kicker through the first 5 games. After the Sophomore was only 5 for 9 on Field Goal Attempts and 17 for 19 on Extra Points, Diaz made the decision to have walk-on Turner Davidson take over placekicking duties for the Virginia game. Both kickers were used for three Field Goal attempts against Georgia Tech. No attempts were greater than 40 yards, but both kickers combined to go 0 for 3 on them. In a game that went to Overtime, that proved to be the difference. With two struggling kickers and a stadium notorious for being unfriendly to their kind, it could be another rough day for Miami’s kickers. The Hurricanes at least have a good punter in Australian Louis Hedley, who is 4th in the ACC with a 45.4 yards per punt average.

Final Thoughts

Miami is banged up at many positions and has questions at Quarterback. They have an awful Offensive Line which the Pitt defense should feed on. It should also be mentioned that they are playing their first away game in almost 50 days thanks to being scheduled to play 5 games in a row for some reason. Additionally, this is their first game outside of the South, with their only other game outside of the state of Florida taking place in North Carolina. Pitt meanwhile is riding a 4 game winning streak, is battle tested from several close games, and it’s Homecoming. All indications point to this being a likely Pitt win. So you know that of course means that Pitt will be locked in a hard-fought battle and have a good chance of getting the loss at the end of the day. Pitt fans have seen this play before and we know how it typically ends. 

This is a game Pitt should win, but we know that there’s a chance, if not a likelihood, that Miami will suddenly realize they have a ridiculous amount of unrealized talent and come out looking like the 2001 version of this team. This is because that always seems to happen to Pitt, especially when they play Miami. It’s this history (2nd only to UNC among Coastal teams) that makes me so scared of a team that just lost to Georgia Tech. There’s more than just the recent history though. As far as this season is concerned, this looks like a defensive battle as both defenses are very good and both Offensive Lines are suspect. I’m expecting both teams to be facing 3rd and longs all day and for long sustained drives to be rare. Because of this, it’s so simple for the game to be decided by a relatively random turnover or bad penalty day. That randomness will always favor the underdog by turning an advantage for the favorite into something closer to a 50/50 proposition.

* Series history courtesy of Winsipedia

* Stats courtesy of College Football Reference

* Line from Rivers Sportsbook as of 7 p.m. on 10/24

* Other information courtesy of Miami