Pitt Hoops Game Preview: Pitt vs. Rutgers
Tonight should be a fun one at the Petersen Events Center, as Pitt and Rutgers face off in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge match. The inter-conference rivalry series began last night with Miami beating Illinois and Minnesota beating Clemson.
Heading into tonight with the series even at one game apiece, Pitt plays Rutgers; Boston College plays Northwestern; Syracuse and Iowa face off; Michigan plays Louisville; Duke plays Michigan State; and Florida State plays against Indiana.
In addition to the ACC/Big Ten Challenge context, Pitt is also hosting their blackout game against Rutgers, and will be wearing the black and gold colors that are emblematic of the rest of the city of Pittsburgh’s sports teams.
Personally, I’d rather see them stick with the blue and yellow to keep building their personal brand as a university, but I get it. Every school does a blackout every year, and it’s cool to be able to do it for a nationally-televised game during a high-profile series like the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Fast Facts
- Tonight’s matchup marks the fifth time that Pitt and Rutgers will face off this decade, with each team having won two of the four games going back to 2010. Rutgers has won each of the past two, including a win over no. 24 Pitt on Jan. 5, 2013.
- This marks just the second time that Pitt will be unranked at the time that they face Rutgers going all the way back to 2001. Over that time, they had 11 straight contests where they were ranked when they faced Rutgers between 2002 and 2011. Man, those Big East Pitt teams were good, huh?
- Rutgers enters tonight’s game at 6-1 with their sole loss coming against St. Bonaventure at the Naismith Classic in Toronto. In that loss, the Bonnies hit 11 of 24 three-point attempts. Pitt is unlikely to have that kind of success behind the arc tonight.
- Rutgers’ coach is Steve Pikiell, serving in his fourth year with the Scarlet Knights. The program has been pretty steady during his time, winning 14 or 15 games in each of his first three seasons. Prior to his hiring at Rutgers in 2016-17, Pikiell coached at Stony Brook for 11 seasons, ending his tenure with a 26-7 finish and an NCAA tournament appearance in 2015-16.
- Rutgers is currently ranked no. 70 in the KenPom rankings, while Pitt sits at no. 74 in the ranking system.
Rutgers Preview
The Scarlet Knights are led by a tandem of guards in junior Geo Baker (13.6 ppg) and Ron Harper Jr. (13.0 ppg), but they have a whopping seven players averaging more than 7.0 points per game. Clearly, they have a variety of players that they can rely upon to shoot the rock.
They have 10 total players that have played in each of their first seven games, and seven of those players are averaging more than 17 minutes per game. Only one of those rotation members, Paul Mulcahy, is a freshman. With nine returning players in their rotation, this is a team that brings much more experience to the table than Pitt.
Their biggest frontcourt threat is sophomore center Myles Johnson, who averages 8.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game in the early going. The 6-foot-10 center has taken a big step forward this year so far after averaging 4.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game as a true freshman last season.
Rutgers has also produced consistent results protecting the basketball, averaging 13.3 team turnovers per game. They’ve turned the ball over fewer than 10 times just once, and haven’t turned it over more than 20 yet. Conversely, Rutgers has compiled 109 assists this year while allowing just 79 and holding opponents to just 59.9 points per game.
Pitt Preview
We all know the story with Pitt, and as I wrote yesterday, this is a big week for the Panthers. Gerald Drumgoole still remains on the shelf with an ankle injury, leaving the Panthers thinner in their rotation than they’d like. Still, the emergence of Justin Champagnie and Eric Hamilton in recent games gives Pitt greater options on the wing and in the frontcourt.
Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens, and Ryan Murphy should once again provide athleticism in the backcourt, though it remains to be seen whether they can heat up from beyond the arc for the first time in what feels like several contests.
I’ll also be curious to see how Jeff Capel uses his combination of big men in Hamilton, Terrell Brown, and Abdoul Karim Coulibaly. Brown only logged 14 minutes against Northwestern and has not been too much of a factor since the first few games of the season, while Coulibaly flashes good athleticism and offensive instincts, but is clearly the most raw of the three bigs.
Pitt enters tonight’s game coming off of a Fort Myers Tip-Off victory having beaten Kansas State and Northwestern, both of which are good wins. They’ll look to beat Rutgers tonight in hopes of building up some momentum heading into their matchup with no. 1 Louisville on Friday night.
Game Preview
As I said before the Northwestern game, I’ll once again be omitting the fact that the “good” versions of Johnson and McGowens need to show up. That continues to be very obvious, and it will be a key to virtually every game this year.
So what else does Pitt need to do to beat Rutgers at home tonight? Here are the Keys to the game.
Pitt must be the better team from three-point range.
This is an obvious one, isn’t it? Pitt has struggled mightily from beyond the arc for most of the season. That has hurt them before, including the loss against Nicholls State where Nicholls shot 11 of 24 from three. In fact, Pitt has been the better three-point shooting team in just two of their eight games so far. They’ve shot a putrid 13 of 64 from deep in the past three games.
In addition to playing solid perimeter defense–Rutgers has been weak from three as well, and it would be a bad look to let them got hot tonight–Pitt needs to find its stroke from beyond the arc. That includes Murphy, but extends to McGowens, Champagnie, and Johnson. Heck, that may even include Au’Diese Toney, who has often taken looks from deep but has been inconsistent at best for the first year and a half that he’s been at Pitt.
The bottom line? Someone needs to step up and hit some big shots tonight for the Panthers.
Pitt must protect the basketball, starting with Johnson and McGowens.
I don’t know if there’s a more confusing team in the country when it comes to turnovers. They turned the ball over just six times and logged 17 assists against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and they turned it over just nine times against Northwestern. But they turned the ball over 20 times against Nicholls State and 21 times against Kansas State will collecting just two assists in the game.
They’re very hot and cold with ball protection. Today, they need to turn the ball over fewer times than Rutgers, plain and simple. That starts with the guys in the backcourt, who have accounted for 58 of Pitt’s 107 turnovers so far.
Pitt needs to control the defensive glass.
We have seen Pitt give up a ton of offensive rebounds early in the year thus far. In fact, that’s been a theme in their losses–Pitt gave up 16 offensive rebounds to Nicholls State and 18 against West Virginia. Part of the problem is with the big men on the interior–Coulibaly and Brown have struggled mightily to prevent offensive second chances for opponents, while Hamilton has been more solid on the glass.
I expect that Pitt will play lineups that maximize their rebounding from the wings as well, with Toney and Champagnie being especially capable forwards on the defensive glass. If Pitt lets Rutgers dominate on the glass tonight, Rutgers will win the game. Pitt will have a much better shot if they can limit the second chance scoring opportunities.
That’s it for our game preview today. The game will be televised on ESPNU at 9 p.m., with a radio broadcast on 93.7 The Fan. Comment below or on the forums during the game, and don’t forget to check back in with Dream Backfield after the game for some post-game analysis of tonight’s game!
