Pitt Hoops has Chance to Seize Opportunity and Room to Grow as Big Week Looms Ahead

The Pitt men’s basketball team did not have long to celebrate their Fort Myers Tip-Off tournament win this past weekend as the Panthers will have to get right back to work to kick off the month of December.

It would not be an overstatement to suggest that this is the biggest week of the early season for the Panthers, who face Rutgers on Tuesday, Dec. 3, as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, followed by a road matchup against no. 1 ranked Louisville on Friday, Dec. 6.

The first of this week’s contests comes against Rutgers, who sport a 6-1 record with their only loss coming against St. Bonaventure.  This is a home game for the Panthers, but it will not be shoe-in by any means. ESPN gives the Panthers a 60.2 percent chance to win tomorrow night’s matchup.

After Tuesday’s affair, Pitt will take a couple of days off before challenging the top team in the country at their place on Friday, as Pitt will enter the KFC Yum! Center (still one of my favorite ACC venue names) as serious underdogs when they play Chris Mack’s Louisville team.

We will have full game previews for both of these contests as we get closer to game time. In the meantime, let’s talk about why this is such a big week for the Panthers.

Pitt starts the week with a nationally televised contest against a good Rutgers team in the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge. A win against Rutgers could provide the Panthers with yet another good victory to go along with their early season wins vs. Florida State, Kansas State, and Northwestern. Would this be the flashiest win in the world? No, probably not. But good NCAA Tournament teams should beat decent high-majors, especially on their home court. Pitt has a chance to do that tomorrow night.

Not to mention that beating Rutgers on the heels of winning the Fort Myers Tip-Off would probably give Pitt a nice confidence boost as they head into their nationally televised road contest against the best team in the country. That team is the dangerous Louisville Cardinals, who represent not just an excellent opponent on Pitt’s schedule but also their second ACC game of the season.

It’s rare to play the top-ranked team in the country–Pitt has done it just four times in its history. They’ve lost all four, including their most recent 66-37 shellacking by no. 1 Virginia on Feb. 24, 2018, one of the worst games of the Kevin Stallings era (Pitt scored just seven points in the first half and the game was over before halftime).

This week Pitt has the chance to seize the opportunities before them. Rutgers gives them a chance to earn a solid win, build some confidence, and work on improving as a team against a decent opponent. Friday’s Louisville matchup gives them an altogether unprecedented opportunity, though.

They have a chance to take down the top team in the country for the first time in Pitt history. They have a chance to earn a signature ACC win as we inch closer to the bulk of conference play. They have a chance to gain national attention and signify to the country that Pitt basketball under Jeff Capel is back more quickly than anyone thought possible when Stallings was fired less than two years ago.

Of course, to seize their opportunities, Pitt has to clean up its play. The Panthers have already lost two games, including a home game against a weak Nicholls State team. They’ve shown some flashes of discipline with the basketball, including a 14 assist/nine turnover game against Northwestern last week.

But too often they’ve been cavalier with the basketball. They’ve posted more turnovers than assists in five of their eight games so far this year, and have already had two games with more than 20 turnovers. That kind of play will jeopardize their ability to beat Rutgers, let alone Louisville.

It’s not just the turnovers, though. Their shooting has also been suspect at best going back to the West Virginia game. Pitt has posted a dismal .207 three-point field goal percentage going back to the Backyard Brawl, despite taking nearly 19 attempts per game. For the most part, Pitt’s three-point attempts over that span have resulted in empty possessions.

For the entire season, the Panthers are shooting just .253 from beyond the arc, while their opponents are shooting a much better .360 from deep. So if it seems like Pitt has been getting killed on both ends by the three ball this season, it’s because they have.

They’ve also been inconsistent from the free throw line. Despite solid showings against Monmouth and Kansas State, Pitt has shot made fewer than 60 percent of their freebies in three of the five games going back to the Backyard Brawl. On the season, they’ve made fewer than 60 percent in four of eight contests. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again–you have to make the free ones to win at this level, especially in a conference like the ACC. Consistency is a major issue for this team right now.

Of course, it’s not all bad. Over the past several games, we have seen the emerging presence of Justin Champagnie and Eric Hamilton, both of whom have played crucial roles in Pitt’s most recent victories.

Champagnie’s work in the Fort Myers Tip-Off earned him tournament MVP honors. In the four games of the tourney, Champagnie averaged 15.8 points and 7.0 rebounds per game on an efficient .510 field goal percentage while hitting 10 of 11 free throws. He has quickly emerged as one of Pitt’s top, most reliable scoring options. It would not surprise me to see him remain the top scorer for Pitt throughout the season.

The emergence of a guy like Champagnie can only help Pitt. It takes the pressure off of Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens, who were assumed to be Pitt’s two-headed scoring monster coming into this season. Champagnie’s quick ascent could take defensive pressure away from Pitt’s sophomore backcourt duo and give them the space they need to turn it around offensively.

That is without mentioning that same benefit may also be felt by Ryan Murphy, who has struggled mightily since putting up 28 points in the loss to Nicholls State. Champagnie’s contributions to the team have gone from “pleasant surprise” to “incredibly important to the team’s success this season,” which is a nice honor to wear for a true freshman who has earned four straight starts and 30 minutes per game over that span.

Hamilton, on the other hand, started the season slow and saw his minutes get chopped in favor of Terrell Brown before coming on strong in Fort Myers last week. Over his past three games, Hamilton has been a dominant offensive force while providing Pitt with a badly-needed presence on the boards. The graduate transfer forward is averaging a double-double over his past three contests, with 11.7 points and 10.7 rebounds in just 24 minutes per game.

Much like Champagnie’s emergence, Hamilton’s own rise to the top of the frontcourt depth chart gives Capel much better options down low. Since Hamilton has turned it on, we have seen some interesting lineup combinations, including an increase of Brown and Hamilton on the floor together. That is a particular combination that I have enjoyed watching, as their skillsets complement each other–Brown plays as more of a shot-altering big, while Hamilton brings offensive finesse and rebounding prowess.

There have been encouraging signs this season, highlighted by Champagnie and Hamilton becoming reliable and important contributors to this team. When Johnson and McGowens are at their best, too, this team has looked great.

To take this team to the next level though, Capel’s team simply must eliminate the avoidable mistakes. Make your free throws. Protect the basketball. Those two things alone would go a long way for Pitt’s chances this year.

The Panthers absolutely could lose against Rutgers, and they’ll surely be heavy, heavy underdogs against Louisville. But if they take advantage of their newly-found depth and work on the fundamentals, they could seize the opportunity before them this week.

Is Pitt beating Louisville unlikely? Of course. But as this team continues to grow together, this week will provide the players with a very valuable learning experience. Win or lose, the young core of this squad will benefit from such a high-profile, competitive week of basketball. I am excited to see how they grow moving forward after the experience.