Pitt Football Game Preview: Boston College
Game Twelve: Pitt (7-4) vs. Boston College (5-6)
Saturday, November 30 at 3:30 p.m.
Series Record: Pitt leads 17-13
Last Game: Pitt won 30-20 (2014)
Line: Pitt Favored by 8.5
Pitt and Boston College used to play annually when both were members of the Big East. Of course realignment put an end to that. The more recent round of course brought them back together, but they still don’t play annually in football as they reside in separate divisions. As it is, this will be only the second time they are meeting since Pitt joined the ACC in 2013. That meeting came in Boston and resulted in a 30-20 Pitt victory in what would be Paul Chryst’s last season leading the Panthers.
The Eagles on the other hand were already in the 2nd season of current Head Coach Steve Addazio’s tenure and would finish that season with 7 wins. Since then, Boston College has been seemingly stuck in neutral as they have yet to surpass that total, despite being bowl eligible every year except one under his regime. In fact, if anything they’ve seemingly taken a step back as they need to beat Pitt in order to qualify for a postseason trip this season. It is at least partially for this reason that there is the sentiment that Addazio is coaching for his job.
Offense
In recent years, Boston College has had a pretty one-dimensional offense in favor of the running game, and for good reason. Running Back AJ Dillon is 3rd in the country in rushing yards (1,507) and his 4,204 career yards are the most in school history by nearly 500 yards. However, they have been forced to rely on him and the running game in general even more during the second half of the season. This is due to starting Quarterback Anthony Brown suffering a season-ending knee injury against Louisville on October 5th. His replacement Dennis Grosel has been lackluster, completing less than half of his passes (48.7%) and averaging only 6.5 yards/attempt. For comparison, Brown was averaging 9.1 yards per attempt prior to his injury.
It’s unsurprising when you consider this that the play mix has tilted even further in favor of the running game. During the first six games of the season, Boston College was passing the ball on 37% of their plays, but since Brown was lost for the season that number has plummeted to 25%. These are approaching triple option team numbers and frankly can’t help but remind me of Pitt’s offense last year when they leaned on Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall to move the ball. AJ Dillon is obviously the guy that they will be leaning on the most, but backup David Bailey provides a good one-two punch for the Eagles. The Sophomore has 786 yards and is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. His 8 touchdowns is also 2nd on the team only to Dillon.
Unsurprisingly, Boston College receivers don’t put up big numbers. No Eagles have more than 500 receiving yards and only 3 have multiple touchdowns. They also heavily use their Tight Ends, with Hunter Long being the team leader in receiving yards. Other Tight Ends Jake Burt and Korab Idrizi are the 4th and 6th leading receivers respectively and Idrizi has the 2nd most receiving Touchdowns on the team. As for traditional Wide Receivers, Kobay White and Zay Flowers are the only two that have put up significant statistics this season. White leads the team with 5 touchdowns and though he only has 392 yards, it’s enough to put him second on the team in that category. Zay Flowers is the team’s 3rd leading receiver with 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. Flowers is also used in the running game, with 195 yards on 25 carries so far this season.
With so much reliance on the running game, Boston College does do what they can to create confusion. They often mix in Quarterback draws and sweeps to Flowers. They operate a lot out of a 12 personnel grouping (1 Running Back, 2 Tight Ends), which creates additional running lanes for the defense to plug up. Despite this, their lack of a passing game means that they don’t have to be backed up too far on 3rd down to be in trouble. When Anthony Brown was healthy, it wasn’t as big of a deal, but Grosel is still green and simply isn’t good enough to be a Power 5 Quarterback right now. Not helping matters is that they don’t seem to have too many playmakers at Wide Receiver.
Defense
Boston College has had a pretty miserable defense this season. They are dead last in the ACC in several important team defensive statistical categories. This includes points per game (32.8), passing yards per game (297.5), total yards per game (488.2), and yards per play (6.5). The total yards per game figure is particularly bad as it ranks 128th in all of FBS, ahead of only New Mexico and UMass. The only teams they’ve played that have been held under 20 points are FCS Richmond and a Rutgers team that is a Big Ten team in name only. The bad news for Pitt is that the rushing defense is definitely the strength, if there is one, of this unit. They are surrendering 190.7 rushing yards per game and 4.7 rush yards per attempt, which is 12th and 11th respectively in the conference and cracks the Top 100 in all of FBS.
If there is anyone in the Boston College Secondary that is worth being wary of, it’s Cornerback Brandon Sebastian. The Sophomore’s 8 passes defended is tied for 9th in the ACC and given his relative inexperience, it’s not a stretch to see him blossoming into a star. There’s only one player in the Eagles Secondary with multiple interceptions though and it’s Safety Mike Palmer. Believe it or not, his 2 leads the team through 11 games. In the trenches at the opposite end of the defense, it’s also worth pointing out the play of Defensive End Brandon Barlow. The Junior has contributed 5 tackles for loss and his 2.5 sacks is actually good enough for second on the team.
The only player on the Boston College that likely merits even passing consideration for all-conference honors is Linebacker Max Richardson. The Junior leads the team in Tackles and Tackles for Loss by very wide margins. His 103 tackles is 29 more than the 74 that fellow Linebacker, and second on the team, John Lamot has racked up. His 14 Tackles for Loss is over half of the 6.5 that Nose Tackle TJ Rayam has in second place. That figure would even be good enough for the team lead for Pitt, despite the impressive number that their defense as a whole has racked up. His 3.5 sacks is a relatively paltry figure to lead the team in, but I’d be willing to bet that has more to do with the quality of his teammates. Finally, his 68 solo tackles is 3rd in nationally. Overall, Richardson is a force in the middle of the Boston College defense and is likely to give the lackluster Pitt running game fits.
Special Teams
Boston College actually utilizes two kickers as their norm. The seemingly appropriately named Danny Longman has played in every game this season. He has yet to attempt a Field Goal or Extra Point though, as he has been utilized as a kickoff specialist. Handling those duties falls to Temple transfer Aaron Boumerhi. Though he has been reliable on extra points (43/43), he has been much less so on Field Goals. He has only hit 8 of his 13 attempts for a 61.5% conversion rate. Junior Grant Carlson has handled punting duties adequately, booting them an average of 43.3 yards.
Final Thoughts
Pitt has already qualified for a bowl game and were eliminated from winning the Coastal again after their loss to Virginia Tech last weekend. Given these facts it would be easy to say that this game doesn’t really matter to Pitt. Meanwhile, Boston College needs the win to earn bowl eligibility (barring a scenario where they get selected as a 5-win team) and they are also potentially playing for their coach’s job. It’s not a stretch to imagine Boston College has all the motivation and comes out hot, while Pitt may be flat and maybe still a little hungover from their embarrassing loss last weekend. That’s specifically why this game is important for Pitt though.
This is an extremely winnable game for Pitt. Not only is Pitt overall the better team, but it’s something of a matchup nightmare for the Eagles. They have a one-dimensional offense that is reliant on the run, while Pitt has one of the best rush defenses in the country. Meanwhile, Pitt’s offense has been one of the worst among Power 5 teams, but gets to face one of the worst defenses in Power 5, that is particularly bad defending the pass, where Pitt excels if it could be said that they excel anywhere on offense.
Pitt needs to come out and show that last week was a fluke, end the season strong, and send the seniors out on a high note. Obviously, a win also puts them in line for a better bowl game when the selections come down next weekend. It would also be nice to finally see Pitt win a game comfortably, something they have yet to do in this season that is rapidly winding down.
* Series history courtesy of Winsipedia
* Stats courtesy of College Football Reference
* Line from vegasinsider.com as of 7 p.m. on 11/29
* Other information courtesy of Boston College
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