Pitt Football Schedule Analysis – Part Two
This is Part 2 of our analysis of Pitt’s 2018 football schedule. For Part 1 can be found here. We now look at the 2nd half of Pitt’s 12 game schedule, beginning with their October 13th game at Notre Dame:
October 13 – @Notre Dame
All-time Record: 21-47-1
Last Meeting: Notre Dame over Pitt 42-30 (2015)
Pitt goes to South Bend, Indiana to play the Fighting Irish for the first time since 2012 and are meeting them for the first time since 2015. Notre Dame’s recent association with the ACC, where they play every team in the conference on a rotating basis, has actually resulted in them playing more infrequently. Instead of playing almost every year, as had been the case prior to 2013, they’re only matched up about twice out of every five seasons. While it’s unfortunate that Pitt doesn’t have the opportunity to play Notre Dame nearly as often as they used to, they do have them on the schedule this year and they will likely present a formidable test for the Panthers.
Notre Dame returns Brandon Wimbush at Quarterback, who was a first-year starter last year. He had his struggles, but he was also a threat with his legs. There are indications that he will be improved in his second year starting given extra experience and spring performances. Even so, Wimbush doesn’t exactly need to be All-American caliber given that the Offensive Line returns 3 of 5 starters from a unit that won the Joe Moore Award for the Nation’s Most Outstanding Offensive Line. Regardless of any questions on offense, the real strength of this team will be the defense. They return 9 starters from that side of the ball which gave up 21.5 points per game and 369 yards per game. With an extra year of seasoning to the returning players, Notre Dame’s defense has a great chance of giving up less than 20 points per game.
Pitt will have their hands full against Notre Dame, though pulling out a win won’t exactly require a miracle. Notre Dame has a great defense and offensive line, but they have questions at the skill positions. Additionally, though Kenny Pickett is still somewhat of an unknown, he’ll likely provide an edge at the most important position on the field. If Pitt is going to win the game, it will likely be because Pickett makes enough plays and the Pitt defense has a great game. Even then, the margin for error will be very low. Look for Pitt to lose a relatively low scoring game.
Chance of Pitt Win: 25%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Notre Dame 21-13
October 27 – Duke
All-time Record: 13-9
Last Meeting: Pitt over Duke 24-17 (2017)
Since joining the ACC, Pitt has generally gotten the better of an at times tough Duke team, winning 4 of 5 games. Even the loss in 2014, took double overtime and was a game Pitt really should have won. Last year, Pitt scored 17 unanswered points to come back from a 17-7 deficit late in the 3rd quarter. The star of that day was Darrin Hall who had a historic 254-yard, 3 touchdown rushing performance. The Panthers hope their winning ways against the Blue Devils continue, and this year things could be lining up with Pitt getting the game at home and coming off of a bye. However, Duke will still present a difficult test.
Duke returns an experienced Quarterback in Daniel Jones, though the dual-threat signal caller was limited last year due to injuries. They lost their top rusher from last season, but have plenty of depth in the backfield, and return almost their entire receiving corps. However, the Offensive Line could take a step back, as they lose 3 starters and 6 from the 2 Deep. On defense, Duke may have the best Linebacking corps in the ACC and the entire Front 7 will be formidable. The strength of the Defensive Backs will depend on the health of Safety Jeremy McDuffie, who suffered a torn ACL towards the end of last season, as they have to replace two other starters in the unit as well.
Duke presents a tough matchup for the Panthers. They have a Front 7 that could wreak havoc on a Pitt Offensive Line that may be a weak link. Additionally, they have a potentially potent offense that has plenty of experience. However, their Offensive Line could also be a detriment and Kenny Pickett will likely be able to exploit their Secondary. With Pitt’s recent success against Duke, having the game after a bye, and the venue being Heinz Field, I find it hard to pick against Pitt given that the game otherwise seems to be a bit of a toss-up.
Chance of Pitt Win: 60%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Pitt 23-20
November 2 – @UVA
All-time Record: 7-3
Last Meeting: Pitt over UVA 31-14 (2017)
Last year Virginia went to a bowl game for the first time since 2011, but they’re still a work in progress entering Bronco Mendenhall’s 3rd year as Head Coach. In fact, he even made waves earlier this offseason by saying that the Cavaliers only have 27 ACC caliber players on their roster. Such a blunt admission from the head of the program on its overall quality was surprising, but sheds light on their current standing despite making a bowl last year. Though Mendenhall aspires to take Virginia out of their typical spot in the basement of the Coastal Division, it is unlikely to happen this year.
The Cavaliers are replacing Kurt Benkert, the 3rd leading passer in program history, at quarterback. Replacing him will be juco transfer Bryce Perkins, who will be a more mobile signal caller than Benkert. They also return a dynamic playmaker in Olamide Zaccheaus, who was the leading receiver and 2nd leading rusher in 2017. Beyond him there isn’t much to get excited about from the skill positions though. Additionally, they have an inexperienced Offensive Line that only returns two starters from last season, though they did add graduate transfer Marcus Applefield from Rutgers. On defense, Virginia lost their best 3 players, 1 each from the Defensive Line, Linebackers, and Secondary, from what was already only an average unit.
On paper, Pitt is the vastly superior team and should have no problem winning their 5th out of 6 games against the Cavaliers since joining the ACC. A lot of their success on offense will be dependent on how Bryce Perkins performs. Though he won’t have a ton of great options and a questionable Offensive Line, his mobility should keep the Virginia offense from regressing too much. However, as their own coach implied, there just isn’t enough talent on the team for them to be very competitive. Virginia does get the game at home and on a Friday night, but they will still be hard-pressed to come out on top in this game.
Chance of Pitt Win: 80%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Pitt 35-10
November 10 – Virginia Tech
All-time Record: 7-10
Last Meeting: Virginia Tech over Pitt 20-14 (2017)
Meetings between Pitt and Virginia Tech have typically been close regardless of the winner since Pitt joined the ACC in 2013. The average margin of victory in this period has only been 5.6 points with every meeting ending within 1 possession except for 2013. This year figures to be no different, despite a tumultuous offseason in Blacksburg. It started when most of the defense left school for the NFL, but the hits kept coming for the Hokies. Over the next few weeks Co-Defensive Coordinator Galen Scott resigned and several more projected defensive starters were either dismissed from the team or declared out for the year due to injury.
Despite the less than ideal offseason for the Hokies, they still project to be a strong squad. They return quarterback Josh Jackson, though even his status was up in the air for awhile for academic reasons. Gone is last year’s leading receiver Cam Phillips, but they return all of the next four. All told they have experience throughout the offense. Defense, as mentioned above, will be an issue for Virginia Tech in 2018. An already inexperienced unit took a further hit with the losses of projected starters Mook Reynolds (dismissed), Jeremy Webb, Jr. (injury), and Adonis Alexander (declared ineligible). The defense will lean hard on a talented and experienced Defensive Line, but they will have very little experience behind them.
Virginia Tech is entering a transition year in Justin Fuente’s 3rd season as Head Coach. They will have to hope that a more experienced offense will have more success than last year and that the young guys on defense will grow up quickly. For this matchup, that’s good news for Virginia Tech as this game will take place in November after they’ve already played 9 games. This game is probably somewhat of a toss-up, but for now I give a slight edge to Virginia Tech, though if the game was played in September I’d probably lean towards calling a Pitt win.
Chance of Pitt Win: 45%
Non-binding Score Prediction: VT 31-28
November 17 – @Wake Forest
All-time Record: 0-0
Last Meeting: N/A
When the Panthers travel to Winston-Salem, North Carolina the weekend before Thanksgiving, it will mark the first time that the two teams ever meet. Additionally, after this game Pitt will have finally played every team in the ACC. Long an ACC bottom-feeder (ignoring a fluky Conference Championship in 2006), 5th year Head Coach Dave Clawson has taken the Demon Deacons to bowls each of the last two seasons. This year they look to make waves in a tough Atlantic division and will present a stout test for Pitt.
Wake Forest faces the unenviable task of replacing the program’s 3rd leading all-time passer in John Wolford. Presumed starter Kendall Hinton will also miss the first 3 games of the season due to a suspension. It will be long over by the time the two teams meet though. Regardless of who the signal caller is, the Demon Deacons should have a potent offense with a deep Running Back corps and a tough Offensive Line. On Defense, Wake Forest is relatively short on experience and high-level talent in the Front 7, but will have a good Secondary.
The Wake Forest offense will present a test for the Pitt Defense. If they are as good as the hype they are getting though, they should be able to keep them relatively in check. A beatable Front 7 will be a fortunate matchup for the Panthers as well, due to their potential weakness on the Offensive Line. I see Pitt having an edge in this game, but not an overwhelming one. This is particularly the case with the game occurring on the road. However, I see Pitt getting the win to run their conference record to 6-1, despite being 7-4 overall.
Chance of Pitt Win: 65%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Pitt 38-31
November 24 – @Miami
All-time Record: 11-25-1
Last Meeting: Pitt over Miami 24-14 (2017)
Based on my predictions so far, Pitt should still be in position to win the Coastal going into their final game against Miami. As Miami is considered the pre-season favorite to win the division, this game could conceivably be a de facto division title game. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they will likely come into this game as big underdogs. Additionally, they will be on the road coming off another road game with the Thanksgiving holiday right in the middle. Between all of this they will be hard-pressed to replicate their shocking upset from last season.
It’s currently not certain who will be Miami’s quarterback when they open the season, either last year’s starter Malik Rosier or reshirt Freshman N’Kosi Perry. Though they will need to replace their two leading receivers from last year, they still return a lot of talent and experience in that area, particularly Ahmmon Richards. Overall, despite the uncertainty at quarterback this should be a powerful offense. When people think Miami though, they think of their defense and the Turnover Chain gimmick. The defense should be just as formidable this year, particularly the Linebacking corps who return all starters including two All-ACC players.
As I mentioned above, it will be difficult for Pitt to beat the Hurricanes again. Even during the upset last season, Pitt benefitted from unexpectedly poor quarterback play from Miami. With a just as tough defense and what should be a slightly improved offense, Miami is understandably the favorite to repeat as Coastal division champions. Surprises happen though as a Pitt team that was likely not as good as this year’s team was able to beat the Hurricanes last year. As of now though, I’m picking Miami to get revenge on Pitt.
Chance of Pitt Win: 20%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Miami 31-13
That brings us to the end of the 2018 Pitt Football Season. If this is how things turn out, Pitt will finish with a 7-5 record, but go (6-2) in the ACC. This would mean they would qualify for a bowl game after missing out last season. Of course I would be shocked if this is exactly how it turns out, which is why I give probabilities for each game. It’s almost certain that they’ll lose one of the games I have them favored in, but they will likely also win at least one game in which they are underdogs. A better way at figuring out how many wins Pitt will have would be to take those percentages to come up with “Expected Wins”. By doing this, we get 6.55 Expected Wins for Pitt in 2018. Obviously, a team can’t win a fraction of a game, so the most likely outcome is either 6 or 7 wins, which would still have Pitt going bowling.
See things shaking out a different way? Let us know on twitter @IntoPitt or directly to me @TheJeemTeam.
Stats courtesy of College Football Reference
All-time Records courtesy of Winsipedia
Other information courtesy of Phil Steele’s 2018 College Football Preview
