The State of the Zoonion: Pitt Hoops on the Rise

What a few weeks it’s been for the Pitt men’s basketball team, eh? Just before the Panthers beat Canisius at home to finish their out-of-conference slate with three straight wins, they received a commitment on Dec. 29, 2019 from elite 2022 guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, who is currently ranked No. 17 in the nation for the recruiting class of 2022 by Rivals.

Just ten days later on Jan. 8, 2020, Pitt and Capel agreed on a two-year extension that would extend the coach’s contract through the 2026-27 season. That same day, the Panthers knocked off the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, N.C., for the first time ever, ending a 23-game ACC road losing streak for the men’s basketball team.

Just 10 days after that, Pitt dominated those same Tar Heels in Pittsburgh to sweep them for the first time in a season since the Panthers joined the ACC before the 2013-14 season. With that win, they improved to 3-4 in ACC play this year, matching their ACC win total from the entire 2018-19 season in just seven ACC games.

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Even to the most casual college basketball observer, these events show without a doubt that Pitt basketball is headed in the right direction. The fact that they all happened in the span of 19 days is nothing short of remarkable considering the state of this basketball program just two short years ago.

With that, it’s time to discuss the 2020 State of the Zoonion, and talk about what each of those moments means for Pitt basketball moving forward.

The Hood-Schifino Commitment

To say that Hood-Schifino’s commitment is huge for Pitt would be an understatement. Not only does he represent Pitt’s most highly-rated recruit since Steven Adams in Jamie Dixon’s 2012 class, but the elite high school sophomore guard shows that head coach Jeff Capel can recruit with the best of them here with the University of Pittsburgh.

Since this is, after all, the State of the Zoonion, I would like to present a brief recap of Pitt basketball’s recent recruiting history over the past several years. If you are uninterested in reading the recap–which is not pretty–feel free to skip ahead to the present day of recruiting. There’s a bolded marker for you below.

Once the Panthers joined the ACC, Dixon’s recruiting suffered. It was clear early on that he would not be able to draw the same type of recruit to Pitt from ACC country as he did when the Panthers were Big East members. After a couple of lackluster classes and waning on-court success with the Panthers, Pitt and Dixon parted ways before the 2016-17 campaign.

If you’re reading this post, I’m sure that you know that. And I’m also sure you know that what happened next was the hiring of a coach who was equally ill-suited to recruit on ACC turf: Kevin Stallings. Under Stallings, Pitt basketball recruiting was… dreadful.

Stallings was forced to bring in a whopping nine recruits in 2017–his first (and only) full class–partially due to the fact five Panthers decided to leave for greener pastures after Stallings’ first season at the helm.

Stallings did find a couple of decent players in this class–Marcus Carr was a four-star recruit, who is lighting it up at Minnesota this season. Jared Wilson-Frame developed into a great sharpshooter and team leader last season, and Terrell Brown is still improving as a true junior under the tutelage of Capel and Tim O’Toole. But that still leaves six players in the 2017 class who either flamed out, transferred, weren’t ACC-caliber players, or some combination of the above reasons.

Then, as Pitt limped to a 0-18 ACC record in the 2017-18 season, Stallings’ recruiting further stalled (so sorry about that joke), as he was able to secure just one commitment for the 2018-19 season–a decent, if unheralded, junior college guard by the name of Danya Kingsby. Kingsby never signed with the Panthers following Stallings’ firing, and is now having a decent season with Bradley after failing to latch on with LSU last season. After Stallings’ inevitable and somewhat controversial firing, Pitt hired Capel.

**For those of you who skipped the recruiting recap, we’re all caught up and back to the Capel era**

Within 70 days of his hiring, Capel had secured commitments from Trey McGowens, Xavier Johnson, and Au’Diese Toney. He proved in just two months what Stallings failed to deliver in two years–that despite a recent crash to rock bottom, a coach with the right vision could still convince good basketball players to play at Pitt.

In the 2019 class, Capel brought in another round of solid players, adding Karim Coulibaly, Gerald Drumgoole, and Justin Champagnie, in addition to junior college three-point shooter Ryan Murphy and Delaware transfer guard Ithiel Horton.

Then, Capel assembled his 2020 class, with John Hugley, Noah Collier, and Max Amadasun having already signed letters of intent which guarantee that they will join the Panthers next season. In addition to the fact that this is yet another solid class, each 2020 commit signing during the early signing period in November 2019 was huge for the Panthers because it allowed the staff to shift focus from the 2020 class to building relationships with future classes.

After the 2020 class had all signed, Pitt fans, as is their wont, began to wonder aloud whether Capel would be capable of landing the elite-elite type of recruit that his reputation as an ace recruiter suggested he would bring to Pittsburgh. Dare I say, the fans got a bit restless.

And yet, as I wrote for The Pitt Basketball Lead in May 2019, Capel’s relationship-building would ultimately pay off down the road for the Panthers. That was surely the case with Hood-Schifino. And now, having Hood-Schifino in the fold signals to elite recruits in future classes that they can come to Pitt and be surrounded by top talent; they can come to Pitt and compete for the ACC title; they can come to Pitt and make a run in the NCAA tournament.

Of course, that isn’t just limited to recruiting classes that come after 2022. Hood-Schifino, despite being a 2022 recruit, can be an effective recruiting tool for Capel’s staff in the 2021 class–and even possibly the 2020 class.

I’m hearing 4 star William Jeffress, a 6-6 SF from Erie, will be committing to #pitt and will reclassify for 2020

— DreamBackfield.com (@IntoPitt) January 20, 2020

The recruiting landscape changes every day, and it is certainly possible that this development will not come to pass when all is said and done. But Jeffress, a top-5o prospect in the class of 2021, would be a huge get for Capel whether he reclassifies or not. And I’d wager that landing recruits like Hood-Schifino makes it more likely that players like Jeffress ultimately decide to take part in the Zoo Era.

The Capel Extension

Naturally then, with the Hood-Schifino commitment representing a possible turning point for the future of the Pitt men’s basketball program, Athletic Director Heather Lyke wasted no time in granting Capel a two-year extension through the 2026-27 season.

Of course, that extension did not stop Pitt fans from still openly speculating that Capel could head to Durham, N.C., as soon as his number is called by Duke after the eventual (though not imminent) retirement of legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski.

And to that, I say: yeah, maybe. But here’s the reality of the situation. Every year that Capel stays and builds his program at Pitt, the more that he and his family have invested in the program, the city, and the community.

Capel is a Blue Devil lifer, but he can be THE guy at Pitt. Nobody will ever fill Krzyzewski’s shoes at Duke. The opportunity to be that guy for the Panthers could be appealing, especially as he spends more time here with significant job security and full support from the athletic department.

He also gets to coach at an ACC school in a great city. Capel’s father coached at Wake Forest. Capel himself played and coached at Duke, and he turned down several head coaching opportunities over the last several years before choosing Pitt. It’s clear that coaching at an ACC school is a priority. And of course, the city of Pittsburgh is part of what drew Capel to Pitt in the first place–his love for the Steelers, his admiration for the city itself.

Not to mention that he is coaching with his brother here in Pittsburgh. Surely that carries value to him, and it’s unclear if he would have the chance to take Jason Capel with him to Duke when the Blue Devils program is well-known for hiring their own young basketball alums as assistants to kick-start coaching careers.

Will any of the reasons that I just laid out tempt Capel to stay at Pitt rather than taking a job opportunity with Duke at some point in the future? Maybe not.

Does it make Pitt a more desirable spot for Capel than almost any school other than Duke? Yes, I do believe so. I would be surprised if Capel were to leave Pitt for any school aside from Duke as long as things continue to go well here in Pittsburgh.

All of this is to say, try to enjoy what is going on with the basketball program now, and worry about later… well, later. But, Pitt fans, you’re right about one thing: the reality of college basketball is that great coaches get great offers from great programs every year. The length of Capel’s deal will not keep other programs from going after him while he’s still at Pitt.

But the reason that the extension is so important is that it almost undoubtedly increased Capel’s buyout number, meaning that any team that wants to lure Capel away from the Panthers is going to have to pay not only Capel’s salary, but also millions of dollars to the University of Pittsburgh should Capel leave at some point.

That serves most importantly as a protective factor against Capel leaving in the very near future, but it also gives Pitt an insurance policy if he does go–potentially millions of additional dollars that they can use to hire a successor for Capel should they need to use it. Hopefully they won’t need to use it anytime soon.

Lyke taking action to secure Capel for the long-term future is a savvy move that sets Pitt up for success over the next decade. We should all be happy about that.

The Tar Heel Sweep

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the winter, though, has been Pitt’s sweep of North Carolina during the ACC slate. Is North Carolina in great shape right now? No, most definitely not. But any time you can beat a Hall of Fame coach and perennial top-25 team twice in one season, you’re doing something right.

Of course, it is not all good. Around the North Carolina wins, Pitt lost winnable games against Wake Forest at home and Miami on the road. Still, the Panthers sit at 3-4 in ACC play with 13 games remaining, and a legitimate chance at postseason play.

The path to that postseason play involves winning at least six more regular season ACC games and probably a couple in the ACC tournament. Is it likely? I would say probably not. Is it possible? Sure.

It starts by winning the winnable games, which Pitt has not always done this year (see: Nicholls State, Wake Forest, Miami). By my count, there are five games left on Pitt’s schedule where they should enter as the favorite: Boston College, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson at home; and Georgia Tech on the road.

Beyond winning those winnable contests, they’ll need to pull off an upset or two to have a legitimate shot at an NCAA tournament berth. Overall, I see it as unlikely that Pitt makes the NCAA tournament in 2020. But they’re a heck of a lot closer to doing so this year than I would have imagined when Capel was hired in March 2018.

Part of the reason for that is the fact that Stallings had sunk Pitt to its worst finish in 40 years, as they suffered a worse simple rating system (SRS) score than they had achieved since 1976-77. It can be said in no uncertain terms that Stallings’ Pitt team was the worst iteration of Panthers basketball in more than four decades.

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While Pitt is unlikely to find themselves in the post-season this year, the progress that this team has made over the past two seasons makes it feel like it won’t be much longer before they do return to the NCAA tournament. And part of that has to do with Capel’s eye for players who can compete in the ACC.

Out of the eight players that Capel has brought into the program so far, it is clear that five of them are more than capable of playing at an ACC level–Johnson, McGowens, Toney, Champagnie, and Murphy have all flashed brilliant at times against the stiffest of competition.

Horton is sitting out this season as a transfer redshirt, and while Coulibaly and Drumgoole have shown flashes of talent, each appears to need a little bit of seasoning before they will see significant minutes in ACC play.

With the direction that Capel’s recruiting at Pitt is headed, you can bet that Pitt will be chock-full of players that can thrive in the ACC sooner rather than later. The Panthers’ sweep of a weaker-than-usual North Carolina team is not the destination, but it’s a sign that this program is well on its way to achieving the success to which fans grew accustomed over the last two decades.

Pretty, pretty, pretty good

And just like that, less than two years after he was hired with a charge to turn Pitt basketball around, Capel is delivering on that promise. The past three weeks have been the most encouraging stretch of time for this program in several years, and I have great confidence that this program has limitless potential under Capel’s leadership.

The State of the Zoonion is, therefore…