Pitt vs. Syracuse Preview and Prediction

The first taste of the ACC comes Wednesday night versus bitter Syracuse at the Peterson Events center. Pitt needs to win to add to their tournament resume, while Cuse needs to prove their early season run was no fluke.

In the preseason ACC polls Syracuse was picked one spot ahead of Pitt at nine, they even received one first place vote. Early in the season it looked like the voters got it right, as the Orange started 6-0 with two wins over ranked teams. The first came in a 79-76 thriller over number 18 UConn and the second against 25^th ranked Texas A&M by a 74-67 decision. Since then Cuse has sputtered losing three of their next seven to teams with a combined record three games overall .500. Now they enter Pittsburgh desperate to prove they are the team people saw early and not the team as of late.

Pitt on the other hand has not hit the same type of struggles, part of that is due to scheduling. The Panthers started the year in a tight affair versus Gonzaga before the game was called due to poor court conditions. Since then Pitt had only one marquee game on their schedule, Purdue. In that contest they played the number 14 team in the country tight, but ended up falling by a final score 72-59. After that the Panthers have torn through their remaining out of conference schedule, except for a close call against Western Carolina. Pitt is eager to prove they are the real deal and that starts with a Syracuse.

Keys:

Crash the Glass-

Syracuse runs a zone like they have for what feels like the last 100 years and that means they are at a disadvantage when it comes to rebounding. The reason for that is when a shot goes up it is hard for the players to find a man and get a body on them before the rebound comes down. In man-to-man defense a player should be close enough to the man he’s guarding to at least put some kind of body on him. The numbers prove it to be true this season for Cuse. On the year they are 289^th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage at 67.7%. That means only 67% of the time do ‘Cuse players reel in the rebound off of an opponent’s miss. Pitt is nothing amazing at defensive rebounding, but their number is at 73.4%, which ranks over 100 spots higher than ‘Cuse. Also, add in the fact that Pitt is 15^th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and it means the Panthers should dominate the glass.

Hit Open Threes-

Pitt was cold from deep last game going a miserable 1-13 and that cannot happen again. For the season they a 38.2% team from deep and on Wednesday night they need to shoot like that team. Since Syracuse plays zone ball movement will be key and if Pitt executes like they should clean looks from three will result. However, if they shoot like last game the Orange will not be forced to overplay shooters and can simply pack the paint. A packed paint means less room for Michael Young and Jamel Artis to operate. If Pitt can hit their open looks from deep it will stretch the Syracuse zone and give their best offensive players more room to work.

Run-

Syracuse does not have a high-octane offense at their disposal, they have only cracked 80 points three times on the year. Pitt on the other hand averages 85 points a game. Forcing ‘Cuse to match them bucket for bucket will put the Panthers in a great position to win.

Ball Movement-

Like it was stated earlier Syracuse runs a zone and the key to beating that zone is quick and meaningful passing. It is not enough to just pass the ball around the perimeter quickly, Pitt needs to make passes that will help probe into that zone. If the zone can shift back in forth without collapsing then it will be difficult to consistently get good looks at the hoop.

Match-up to Watch:

Jamel Artis vs. Michael Gbinije

Artis is coming off his best game of the season and maybe his career with 29 points against Western Carolina. Gbinije on the other side has been the Orange’s best player all year posting almost 19 points a game. Artis will most likely be tabbed as the man to guard him, since he is the same height as Gbinije. The winner of this individual battle very well could determine who wins the game.

Prediction:

This rivalry has transitioned well from its’ Big East days to the ACC. Last year Pitt walked won both contests and you better believe ‘Cuse remembers that. However, this Pitt team returns four starters from the team that swept the Orange a year ago and has improved since then. It should be tight throughout, ultimately though Pitt will make a couple more plays than Syracuse can.

Final Score: Pitt-75 Syracuse-69