Know Your Foe: UCF
Pitt-UCF Preview
Game Three: Pitt (2-2) @ UCF (3-0)
Last Week
The Pitt defense was a sieve and suffered a very disappointing 38-35 loss to North Carolina. Central Florida won their 16th straight game, pulling away in the 2nd half against Florida Atlantic, winning 56-36.
UCF Offense
Central Florida’s offense is undeniably powered by their star Quarterback McKenzie Milton. The Junior signal-caller threw for 4,037 yards and 37 Touchdowns against only 9 Interceptions last year, leading the Knights to an undefeated 13-0 season capped by a Sugar Bowl victory over Auburn. He added an additional 613 rushing yards and 8 rushing Touchdowns as well, proving to be a dangerous dual-threat. Milton hasn’t slowed down at all through their first 3 games this season and is generating Heisman Trophy chatter. The Pitt defense as a whole will have their work cut out for them trying to slow him down.
McKenzie Milton isn’t the Knights’ entire offense though. On the ground, they feature a multi-pronged attack with 6 players, including Milton, that have at least 15 attempts through their first 3 games. Despite this, there is still a clear primary Running Back in Adrian Killins. The Junior leads the team with only 33 attempts, but is averaging 5.8 yards per rush and has 3 Touchdowns. Taj McGowan and Greg McCrae, who round out the primary rushing attack, each have at least 100 yards and are averaging 5.4 and 8.2 yards per rush respectively.
Gabriel Davis, Dedrick Snelson, and Tre Nixon are Milton’s favorite targets in the passing game. Each have at least 187 yards and 1 Touchdown through the first quarter of the season. Davis leads the way though with 242 yards on 20 receptions with 3 Touchdowns. Nixon arrived this season via transfer from Ole Miss and, like Taysir Mack was with Pitt, surprisingly granted eligibility to play this season. Snelson operates out of the slot, potentially setting him up for a big day against Pitt given their weakness defending these receivers this season. Tight Ends are not a major part of Central Florida’s offense, but Michael Colubiale does have 7 receptions for 101 yards.
UCF Defense
The Knights’ defense is not nearly as fearsome as their offense, particularly after losing some key pieces over the offseason. Particularly missed are Linebacker Shaquem Griffin and Cornerback Mike Hughes. Additionally, they are running a different scheme under new Defensive Coordinator Randy Shannon. After previously running a 3-4 front (3 Linemen, 4 Linebackers), they’ve switched to a 4-3 (4 Linemen, 3 Linebackers). Between the vital personnel losses and the transition, it could be expected to see some growing pains on defense.
While so far the numbers are decent, with opponents only scoring 17.7 points per game, it has come against generally inferior competition over a small sample size. In particular, numbers are skewed by a shut-down performance against FCS South Carolina State. They are also are averaging a probably unsustainable 3 Turnovers per Game, almost double the average this season (1.6 Turnovers per Game). Last week’s game potentially exposed some execution issues as they seemed to have tackling issues. This allowed Florida Atlantic to rush for a total of 320 yards and 4 Touchdowns. Leading the way was Running Back Devin Singletary, who racked up 131 yards rushing and 3 Touchdowns.
There are still playmakers on the Central Florida defense as evidenced by their 9 Turnovers through 3 games. Middle Linebacker Pat Jasinski, in addition to leading the team in tackles (27), also has 2.5 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. He also has contributed in defending the pass with an interception and pass break-up. Despite the departure of Hughes, the Secondary is still the strength of the Knights’ defense. Safety Kyle Gibson, who had 4 Interceptions last season, did return and he already has 1 interception and 3 pass break-ups this year. Overall, the Secondary has 4 of the team’s 7 Interceptions this season.
UCF Special Teams
Central Florida has an experienced kicker in Matthew Wright. The Senior has hit 76% of his Field Goal attempts in his career (44/58). He’s only attempted one Field Goal this season, a 25-yard make against South Carolina State, but he’s a perfect 21 for 21 on PATs. Handling Punting duties is another veteran in Mac Loudermilk. The Senior with a “mountain-man aesthetic” has averaged 38.1 yards per punt in 7 attempts this season. He also handles holding duties on Field Goal and PAT attempts.
Key Matchup – McKenzie Milton vs. Pitt Secondary
The Pitt defense had a rough game last weekend against UNC Quarterback Nathan Elliott. No disrespect to the Tar Heels’ signal-caller, but McKenzie Milton will, to put it mildly, presents a stiffer test. All throughout Pat Narduzzi’s tenure, the Panthers’ defense has allowed prolific numbers to opposing offenses. While this has been frustrating to watch, there was always hope that the defense would play to the level expected when Narduzzi was hired once he brought in enough of his own recruits. However, last week’s game may have killed any hope of this every happening. In theory, there’s no excuse for break-downs like last weekend to continue happening given the talent that Narduzzi has brought in. With the defense getting torched by a sub-par offense that has been held to less than 20 points in their other 3 games, it’s time to accept that there is likely a major issue in either scheme, execution, coaching, or, more likely, all three on the defensive side of the ball. All indications point to Narduzzi stubbornly sticking to what isn’t working and because of that, it will be up to the Secondary to play much better than last week if they have any hope of stopping Milton.
Prediction: UCF 55-38
Unless Narduzzi makes drastic changes to the defense, which is unlikely, Central Florida is likely going to have a field day against the Pitt defense. Maybe Narduzzi’s scheme would work if Pitt had a Secondary full of NFL-caliber players, but they do not have this. Central Florida, like North Carolina, is going to be able to exploit the Panther defense, but will be able to do so even more effectively. I see this game playing out similarly to last week, with it becoming a shootout, albeit with Pitt moving the ball more methodically. Unfortunately for the Panthers, UCF will likely be even more successful, leading to a much wider margin of defeat.
*Stats courtesy of College Football Reference
*Other information courtesy of UCF Game Notes
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