Football Game Preview: Virginia Tech
Game Eleven: Pitt (7-3) vs. Virginia Tech (7-3)
Saturday, November 23 at 3:30 p.m.
Series Record: Virginia Tech leads 10-8
Last Game: Pitt won 52-22 (2018)
Line: Virginia Tech Favored by 4
On my twitter account earlier this week I ran a poll asking my followers a simple question regarding how they view this weekend’s foe in relation to Pitt. I asked if they considered Virginia Tech to be a major rival, minor rival, or not a rival at all. Overwhelmingly, the option for minor rival was selected with 85%. I would be willing to bet most would consider West Virginia and Penn State to be Pitt’s only major rivals. However, given that those aren’t annual opponents anymore, and that the two teams have only met 18 times in their long histories, it stands to reason that Virginia Tech may one day be considered a major rival. That will especially be the case if they keep playing in meaningful contests in November as this year’s meeting has become.
With only two weeks of the regular season remaining, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Pitt are the only teams remaining with a shot at winning the Coastal division.
[Standings]
As you can see, Virginia has the inside track with one more ACC game played than Pitt and Virginia Tech and with a head-to-head win over the former. All they have to do is beat the Hokies next week and they will win the division. However, if Virginia Tech wins next week (as they’ve done for 15 straight seasons against the Cavaliers) things get a little trickier. All three teams would still be alive and the division champ would be determined based on the combined results of the Commonwealth Cup and the Pitt-Boston College matchup next weekend. A loss would not eliminate the Hokies, but they would not control their own destiny, while a loss would eliminate the Panthers. Obviously, this makes this a huge game for both teams before you even factor in the fact that there are also Orange Bowl implications.
Offense
Virginia Tech has pretty much been two completely different teams this season. There was the underperforming team that limped to a 2-2 record through the first 4 games. But the current edition we’ve seen the last 6 games is 5-1 and has surged to position themselves to potentially win the Coastal. It doesn’t take much brain power to deduce that the source of the Hokies’ season flipping comes down to the switch to Hendon Hooker at Quarterback after they were embarrassed by Duke in Week 5.
Since then, Virginia Tech has been a much better offensive team. In the first 4 games, the Hokies were committing nearly 3 turnovers per game, but since then they’ve averaged only 1 per game. During the same prior span they were only averaging 5.14 yards per play, but since then they’ve averaged almost a yard more per play (6.09). This has led to them scoring almost two touchdowns more per game on average (23.3 PPG in first four compared with 36.7 in the last 6). Unsurprisingly, Hooker has been a very efficient quarterback averaging 10.1 yards per attempt with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions this season.
Despite this overall improvement due to the Quarterback play, the Hokies are still averaging almost the same number of passing yards per game as they were before the switch (214.75 compared with 214.17). A lot of this probably has to do with the fact that Hooker isn’t much of a deep ball threat right now. This doesn’t really matter though as he’s taken care of the ball and has proven to be a threat with his legs. In his 5 games starting he has rushed for at least 40 yards in 4 of them. Virginia Tech’s offense relies on a lot of misdirection and Hooker runs it very well. This has opened things up for the running game as a whole, not just when Hooker keeps the ball.
It has taken a while for the Hokies’ running game to get going this year as they have been breaking in a young offensive line (sound familiar). Lately, opposing defenses have had to respect Hooker more, giving more room for the running game in general to get going. DeShawn McClease is the primary Running Back with 600 yards, but Virginia Tech also heavily utilizes their receivers in the running game. Tre Turner, who is also the 2nd leading receiver on the team, has also contributed on the ground with 180 yards on 15 carries. Overall, Virginia Tech unsurprisingly has seemed to blur the line between the receivers and Running Backs to quite a bit. Even Tight End James Mitchell has seemed to be utilized in the running game in goalline situations. He has 5 overall touchdowns, but 3 have come on the ground, despite the fact that he only has 6 rushing yards total.
Defense
The Virginia Tech defense has also seemed to have turned things around in the last 6 games. During the first stage of the season they were surrendering 28.5 points per game, but in the last 6 that number has gone down by nearly a touchdown (21.8). The Hokies seem to be back to having their traditionally stout defense after the subpar (to put it kindly) unit they’ve had on the field the previous season and a half. They operate a lot out of the Nickel with 5 Defensive Backs. Playing that key Nickelback position is Chamarri Conner, who as a Sophomore is having a breakout season. He leads the team in sacks with 5 and has 8.5 tackles for loss total. He is also 2nd on the team with 7 Passes Defended.
The most dangerous player in the Virginia Tech secondary is the team leader in the Pass Defended category. Cornerback Caleb Farley has 11, with 4 interceptions (1 of which was a Pick Six). Not much relief will be found on the other side of the field though, as the other starting Cornerback Jermaine Waller also has 3 interceptions to his name (with 5 passes defended). The studs aren’t limited to the Secondary in the Hokie defense though. Linebacker Rayshard Ashby leads the team with 13 Tackles for Loss (with 3 of them being sacks), but has 1 Forced Fumble and 1 Pass Defended as well.
Despite the strong individual players that the Hokies have in their secondary, the rush defense is actually much stronger overall than their pass defense. This season they are giving up 124 yards per game on the ground on average (28th in FBS) and 3.6 yards per rush (31st in FBS). Relatively speaking their passing defense could be considered pedestrian. Their 241.6 yards per game surrendered through the air is way down at 88th in the country.
Special Teams
Virginia Tech has about as much of a star as you can at Punter. Junior Oscar Bradburn leads the country in punting average, with his 48.28 yards per punt narrowly edging out the 48.26 average that Max Duffy (Kentucky) owns. Just this past week he was also named a semifinalist for the Ray Guy Award given to the nation’s best college punter. In a game that will likely be sloppy, given the predicted weather, and feature two high quality defenses it’s not a stretch to picture the punting actually playing a crucial role in the outcome. Kicker Brian Johnson has been nowhere near as reliable though. The Junior is 13/17 on the season and that 76.5% average has actually helped his career rate (71.8%). 2 of his misses were from relatively close range in the numerous overtime periods played against North Carolina. Frankly, it was a miracle that neither of those misses ended up costing the Hokies that game.
Final Thoughts
The conventional wisdom seems to be that if Pitt wins this game it will be considered an upset. I think that this is a ludicrous position to take. I understand it, Virginia Tech and Miami are the teams that were supposed to dominate the Coastal division when the current alignment was set up. Because of that the media will always try to bolster these teams up and it must rankle them to no end that the Coastal has been the definition of parity this decade.
Here are the facts though: Virginia Tech has a tricky offense that seemed to catch some teams off guard with Hendon Hooker’s promotion to starting Quarterback. Pitt’s defense is one of the best in the country and certainly better than Virginia Tech’s. The Hokies’ young Offensive Line is facing a matchup nightmare against Pitt’s dominant Defensive Line. The weak spot in the Virginia Tech defense seems to be through the air.
This doesn’t suggest to me that Pitt is a runaway pick to win here by any means, but they have a few matchup advantages. Additionally, it will likely be a close low scoring game, which often come down to key turnovers. While Virginia Tech has been fantastic at protecting the ball in recent weeks, it is undeniable that luck is a key element of turnovers. Overall, I feel like the line of this game should be about a touchdown in the other direction, with Pitt favored by about a Field Goal. Regardless, I expect a close, well-played, high intensity game, and I for one am excited!
* Series history courtesy of Winsipedia
* Stats courtesy of College Football Reference
* Line from vegasinsider.com as of 7 p.m. on 11/21
* Other information courtesy of Virginia Tech
