Pitt Football Schedule Analysis – Part One
In advance of the 2018 Pitt football season, I’m going to go game by game through the schedule and take a look at the teams the Panthers will be playing. I will also give what percent chance I think that Pitt has of winning the game as of right now and a non-binding score prediction. There will be more in-depth preview articles during the week of each of these games itself with updated win odds and score prediction. Doing this now will lead up to my final record prediction for the season. For now though, I’ll give how I see the first half of the schedule shaking out.
September 1 – Albany
All-time Record: 0-0
Last Meeting: N/A
Pitt opens the 2018 season against Albany of the Colonial Athletic Conference (CAA). This will be the first time the Panthers will ever play the Great Danes, who are led by former Pitt assistant Greg Gattuso. Pitt has a history of having a surprisingly hard time against FCS opponents, notably losing to Youngstown State in 2012 on top of several other close calls over the years. Despite this, at first glance Pitt should have no trouble with Albany. They went 4-7 in 2017 and were picked to finish 9th in the 12 team CAA.
The Pitt defense will need to be wary of a couple of dangerous players in Wide Receiver/Punt Returner Donovan McDonald, who Gattuso called “…the most dynamic guy in the conference”, and Running Back Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks, who will be looking to make a comeback after missing most of 2017 with injuries. On the other side of the ball, Albany’s strength will likely be on the Defensive Line. Despite this, there’s a reason Albany is picked to finish towards the bottom of their conference. They have a young Offensive Line and lost several key defensive contributors to graduation and injuries. On top of that, there is uncertainty at Quarterback, with a battle currently taking place at Fall Camp between Will Brunson and Vincent Testaverde (with Nyc Burns also in the mix).
Albany does have the potential to catch the Panthers napping with a dynamic returner and stout Defensive Line. Despite this, I would be very surprised if Pitt’s talent doesn’t allow them to cruise to an easy win to open the season. I will give Albany a 5% chance of winning due to the aforementioned reasons and the greater potential for a team to be caught unprepared that is often seen in any early season matchup.
Chance of Pitt win: 95%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Pitt 38-10
September 8 – Penn State
All-time Record: 43-51-4
Last Meeting: Penn State over Pitt 33-14 (2017)
The 3rd of 4 scheduled games in the briefly re-born rivalry will be played in primetime at Heinz Field. Penn State has lost a lot from last year’s Fiesta Bowl team and this perception shows in them being picked to finish 3rd in the Big Ten East. However, they still have Playoff aspirations in Happy Valley due to James Franklin’s strong recruiting. Despite this, Pitt will be looking for revenge after losing last year in State College and they have a better chance of getting it than many seem to think.
On offense, Penn State lost valuable weapons all over the field. Gone are Tight End Mike Gesicki and Wide Receiver DeaSean Hamilton. Most painful though has to be the loss of Running Back Saquon Barkley. Everyone will learn quickly how reliant their offense was on the back-to-back Big Ten Player of the Year. On Defense, the Lions return only 3 starters from last year’s group. Despite these losses, Penn State does return Quarterback Trace McSorely and an experienced Offensive Line. The nice recruiting run they’ve been on in recent years means that there will likely be quality players ready to fill in for the departed individuals. However, one would be foolish to not expect some drop-off given all the key players that are being replaced. The question is how much?
Pitt is lucky to be playing their in-state rival early in the season. They will be breaking in a lot of players against Pitt who will be starting or playing against a Power 5 opponent for the first time. A more experienced Pitt team could have their way for stretches and may be better conditioned by the time the 4th quarter rolls around. Despite this, one can’t discount the talent Penn State has at the most important position on the field in McSorely. Pitt can win, but they will be (and should be) the underdog at home.
Chance of Pitt win: 35%
Non-binding Score Prediction: PSU 31-27
September 15 – Georgia Tech
All-time Record: 7-5
Last Meeting: Georgia Tech over Pitt 35-17 (2017)
Watching Pitt play Georgia Tech once a year may be the most annoying thing about joining the ACC. The Triple Option offense, which the Yellow Jackets have utilized since it was installed by Head Coach Paul Johnson 11 years ago, may be the most frustrating thing to watch in college football. Every time Pitt completes a game with Georgia Tech there’s often just a sense of relief that it is over, rather than the typical joy or disappointment (depending on the result) that occurs. Last year, the Panthers had no answer for the Yellow Jackets, with the 6.5 yards per rush they gained against Pitt being the high mark on the season for them.
Despite Georgia Tech gashing the Pitt defense last year, they were actually not as effective as their Triple Option has been typically last year. This was primarily due to breaking in new Quarterback TaQuon Marshall, losing their previous top Running Back and having injuries on the Offensive Line. This year with more experience, the Yellow Jacket offense promises to be much better. However, they also have to replace 8 starters on defense and will be breaking in a new Defensive Coordinator. While former Defensive Coordinator Ted Roof was generally underwhelming, it’s hard to see the already mediocre defense improving with so much turnover.
Georgia Tech should have an improved offense this year, but Pitt’s defense has improved by an even larger degree. Because of this, they should be more successful at stopping them this year. Correspondingly, Pitt’s offense will be improved while the Georgia Tech defense will be more inexperienced. Put these together and on paper it seems like Pitt should be a strong favorite when the two teams meet. However, the Triple Option is fickle, irritating, and can make even great defenses look foolish. Because of this, it’s hard to be too confident about any game involving the Yellow Jackets. I would still say Pitt has the edge though, particularly with the game at home.
Chance of Pitt win: 65%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Pitt 31-24
September 22 – @UNC
All-time Record: 3-9
Last Meeting: UNC over Pitt 34-31 (2017)
Since joining the ACC, no team has given Pitt fits like North Carolina. They’re the only Coastal Division rival that the Panthers haven’t beaten in their first 5 years in the conference. Frustratingly, it’s not like the Tar Heels have been blowing them away. All five conference games between the two teams have been a one score loss by the Panthers. Last season, the Tar Heels came into the game reeling at 1-8 and injury-ravaged. They proceeded to take the game’s opening kickoff back for a Touchdown on the way to a 34-31 upset victory.
Things are potentially looking up for the Panthers regarding their matchup with North Carolina this year. Recently 13 players were suspended by the NCAA for selling university-issued apparel. Due to the varying lengths and a staggering of when some of them will be served, the Tar Heels will only have 8 players unavailable when they play Pitt, including their potential starting Quarterback and a starting Defensive End. They also have an inexperienced Offensive Line, having new starters at 4 of the 5 positions. On the other hand, the Defense should be an asset for the Tar Heels with an experienced unit returning 8 starters.
While Pitt hasn’t gotten over the hump against North Carolina yet, the stars are potentially aligning for that to change this year. Between the suspensions, North Carolina’s uncertainty on offense, and the law of averages, one has to think that this is the year Pitt finally gets a W against the Tar Heels. Even where there is a potential mismatch, between North Carolina’s Defensive Line and Pitt’s Offensive Line, things favor the Panthers with one of the Tar Heel’s Defensive Ends being suspended for the game. As much as I’m hesitant to say so, I think this is the year Pitt finally gets a win against North Carolina, but it’s hard for me to be too confident given Pitt’s history.
Chance of Pitt win: 60%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Pitt 24-20
September 29 – @UCF
All-time Record: 1-0
Last Meeting: Pitt over UCF 52-7 (2006)
Central Florida were one of the biggest stories in college football last year going undefeated and capping the season with a win over Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Off the laurels of this success, Head Coach Scott Frost left to take the same position at his alma mater Nebraska and took the entire coaching staff with him. Replacing him is first-time Head Coach Josh Heupel, formerly the Offensive Coordinator at Missouri. Pitt has played Central Florida once, a one-off game in Orlando in 2006 that was a blow-out Pitt victory. Perhaps it was memories of that game combined with having a game in a recruiting hotbed that resulted in this home-and-home being scheduled prior to last season’s meteoric rise.
Despite having to replace all their coaches, Central Florida remains a formidable foe for the Panthers. They still have McKenzie Milton at Quarterback who threw for over 4,000 yards last year with a 67.1% completion rate and 37 touchdowns against only 9 interceptions. Because of this they should still have a potent offense this year, though it’s hard to see them replicating the 48.2 points per game they had last year due to turnover at Offensive Line and in the Receiving corps. Last year the defense had a bit of a “bend but don’t break” feature giving up 428 yards per game, but only surrendering a respectable 25.3 points per game. The Knights lose a lot of talent on the defense though with two 1st team all-conference players and the 2016 AAC Defensive Player of the Year Shaquem Griffin departing.
Central Florida had a great team last year, but they will likely see some regression due to key losses on both sides of the ball and breaking in a new coaching staff. Despite this, Central Florida is still a tough opponent and are favored to win the AAC again. Quarterback McKenzie Milton is a stud and if the Panthers have any chance of winning this game the Front 7 will likely need to make life difficult for him. Pitt has their work cut out for them trying to steal a win on the road, but it’s not an impossible proposition.
Chance of Pitt Win: 30%
Non-binding Score Prediction: UCF 41-31
October 6 – Syracuse (Homecoming)
All-time Record: 38-31-3
Last Meeting: Syracuse over Pitt 27-24 (2017)
Last year was Pitt’s first loss to Syracuse since the two teams joined the ACC in 2013. The Panthers have certainly gotten the better of the Orange in recent years. This is consistent with Syracuse’s status as an ACC bottom-feeder over that same time. While there is evidence of them rebounding, things aren’t looking up too much for this year though. Look for Pitt to get back to their winning ways against Syracuse when the two teams meet for Pitt’s Homecoming.
Syracuse does have a few things going for them this year. Most prominently they return Quarterback Eric Dungey who was leading the ACC in passing yards before a season-ending injury after 9 games. Additionally, they have a pretty experienced team returning, particularly on offense. Despite all of this, Dungey has yet to finish a season with Syracuse injury-free and it has hampered their offenses the last few years. Even with Dungey healthy, the Orange defense is a detriment, particularly the Linebackers. That unit is their most inexperienced position group with only 1 career start among returning players.
If Dungey is healthy Syracuse can be a dangerous team, as evidenced by upset victories over Clemson and Virginia Tech over the last 2 seasons and their win over Pitt last year. However, they also haven’t been to a bowl since 2013 and they simply don’t have the talent to expect them to make it back to one this year. Even if Dungey is healthy they have an inexperienced receiving corps and inconsistent Running Backs. Combined with the Orange’s shoddy defense and the game being at home, Pitt has a decided advantage when the two teams meet.
Chance of Pitt Win: 75%
Non-binding Score Prediction: Pitt 45-20
Through the first half of the season, I see Pitt being 4-2 overall, but undefeated at 3-0 in ACC play. Adding those win percentages though results in 3.6 expected wins, so any actual variation from that is more likely to be lower than 4 wins than higher. Look soon for Part Two of this schedule analysis where I give the second half of the season and present my final record prediction for the season.
See things shaking out a different way? Let us know on twitter @IntoPitt or directly to me @TheJeemTeam
Stats courtesy of College Football Reference
Other information courtesy of Phil Steele’s 2018 College Football Preview
