Quick Lane Bowl a Must-win for Pitt
I was in a fantastic mood when I woke up on November 15, 2019 and not just because it was a Friday. I’m also sure that many of you felt similarly that morning, as the Panthers had won dramatically in overtime against the North Carolina Tar Heels just the night before. Not only had Pitt gotten the UNC monkey off their back with the win, but they had run their record to 7-3 and maintained a realistic shot at repeating as Coastal division champions and earning a spot in the Orange Bowl. Things obviously changed quickly after that, as Pitt ended the regular season with back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Boston College. The Panthers’ loss to Virginia Tech was bad enough in that it eliminated Pitt from Coastal division contention, but it was also the program’s first shutout in over 10 years. They followed that up with a lackluster showing against an inferior Boston College team, committing 4 turnovers en route to a 26-19 loss.
The losses were not only embarrassing, but they caused Pitt to plummet down the ACC bowl pecking order, setting up a date in Detroit’s Quick Lane Bowl against a MAC opponent. Needless to say, it was a far cry from the potential New Year’s Six matchup that had been a possibility just weeks ago. Despite the disappointing finish to the season Pitt has one last game, which at the very least provides extra practices and one last time to see the seniors play, even if it is a glorified exhibition. However, for a variety of reasons, Pitt’s tilt with Eastern Michigan is about as close to a must-win that you’ll see for a non-Playoff bowl game.
One obvious reason that Pitt needs a win to finish up the season has to do with their poor recent results in post-season play. Admittedly, as I mentioned above, these are glorified exhibitions and they tend to lend themselves to unusual results. Because of this, there shouldn’t be too much disappointment when a team loses a bowl game. However, it gets frustrating when Pitt seems unable to win these games and finish the season on a high note year after year. Pitt has yet to win a bowl game under Pat Narduzzi, with the Panthers losing each of the 3 opportunities that they’ve had. The 2016 Pinstripe Bowl against Northwestern and last year’s Sun Bowl against Stanford were especially frustrating. In the former, Pitt had been a much better team during the regular season than the mediocre Northwestern team they were facing. However, injuries to James Conner and Nathan Peterman handicapped what had been a potent offense that season and the Wildcats pulled off the upset. Last year, Pitt outplayed Stanford to a fairly significant degree, but an anemic offense kept the Cardinal in the game and they held on for a 14-13 victory.
The disappointing results aren’t solely a Pat Narduzzi phenomenon though. Since 2000, Pitt is 5-10 in bowl games and have lost 6 of their last 7. Some of Pitt’s most notorious losses in the first fifth of this century have contributed to Pitt’s bowl woes. All Pitt fans remember, not fondly at all, the 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the 2008 Sun Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl following the 2014 season. The former for being a master class in offensive futility (from both teams admittedly) and the latter for Pitt being on the wrong side of the biggest 4th quarter comeback in bowl history. A win tonight would give Pat Narduzzi his first bowl win and help Pitt claw it’s bowl win percentage closer to .500.
Another reason to call this game must-win is a less tangible reason and it has to do with simply wanting to finish the season on a high note. This argument can really apply to every team playing in a bowl game, but it especially applies to Pitt given how the last couple games of the season went. A win gives them a springboard into the offseason that they haven’t typically received. Additionally, while it won’t take the bad taste of the Virginia Tech and Boston College losses out of our mouths, it will somewhat mitigate the disappointment they engendered. Additionally, while I don’t think there are really any recruits out there that would use the result of one bowl game as the decider of which college they choose, the momentum of a win certainly can’t hurt in that realm. While the majority of the Class of 2020 signed at the December signing date, there are still some final targets that can be added before the February date. A win, even in a minor bowl game, can always be spun to recruits as a sign that the program is on the upswing. Needless to say, this is an argument that Narduzzi has never been able to use. Maybe more importantly, it could also help the staff get a jump on recruiting in the Class of 2021.
From a record-keeping standpoint a win gives Pitt an 8-5 record, which would match the best mark that Narduzzi has had as Pitt Head Coach. He had the same record in each of his first two seasons, though in those seasons he hit 8 wins in the regular season before losing the bowl game. While we obviously would all like to have seen more than 8 wins in a season by now, that ship has sailed and frankly I think it’s pointless to continue to whine about it at this point. Ignoring this point, a victory gives Pat Narduzzi 8 wins for the 3rd time in 5 seasons as Pitt’s head coach. Pitt football hasn’t had a similar level of success since they won at least 8 games in each of Dave Wannstedt’s final 3 seasons leading the Panthers (2008-10). Additionally, the aesthetics of an 8-5 record are also much better than a 7-6 record. While they’re only one game apart from each other, the latter is obviously only one game over .500 and is indicative of a more mediocre season than the former.
These reasons I’ve discussed above are all enough to want a win, but it’s only when you take them together with my last point that it becomes obvious why Pitt almost needs a win. I’ve mentioned Pitt’s opponent Eastern Michigan, but I haven’t really discussed them to this point. All of the above arguments are related to Pitt and haven’t really considered their opponent. So what kind of opposition is Pitt facing in the Eastern Michigan Eagles? To put it simply Eastern Michigan is not very good and is one of, if not the, worst team in FBS to be selected to play in a bowl game this year. Taking a quick look at the Eagles, you can see that they’re a team that went .500 while playing in one of the worst FBS conferences. A lot of prognosticators were even saying that they would be the sole bowl eligible team to not get selected for a post-season game (There were 79 bowl eligible teams this year for 78 slots). Just having this meager knowledge should be enough to infer that Eastern Michigan may not be a very good team.
Despite this, there is some evidence that Eastern Michigan is a decent team. Obviously, they went 6-6 against a full schedule of other FBS teams, so they can’t be too awful. They also scored a win over a Power 5 bowl team in Illinois. However, 5 of their 6 losses came to fellow MAC opponents and finished with a losing record in conference play at 3-5. Again, this is in one of the worst conferences in the FBS. It would be incredibly unlikely for Eastern Michigan to accrue a similar record against a schedule like what Pitt of the typical Power 5 team faces. Advanced stats agree with this supposition as none of the main ratings have them anywhere near what would be considered an average FBS team. Out of 130 total teams, SP+ rates them as 101st, FPI at 98th, and SRS at 107th. This means Eastern Michigan will be one of the worst teams that Pitt will play this season, on par with Georgia Tech and Ohio and only definitively better than FCS Delaware.
More specifically, Eastern Michigan has had a pretty bad defense this season and at best an average offense. Overall, they are surrendering 30.3 points per game this season, 85th among all FBS teams. Additionally, both of their games against Power 5 opponents surpassed that total, with Kentucky scoring 38 points and Illinois scoring 31 points. Opposing teams haven’t exactly been unlucky either with points, as the Eagles’ yards per game and yards per play totals are in the 90’s in the overall FBS rankings. They’re giving up 428.3 yards per game (92nd) and 6.0 yards per play (91st). They have particularly been weak at rushing defense, giving up 202.4 yards per game (110th), which may help get the anemic Panthers’ rushing attack going.
On offense the Eagles are a little better, scoring 29.1 points per game (65th) and gaining 402.8 yards per game (68th). Specifically, they have actually had a fairly potent passing attack, with their 279.7 passing yards per game 30th in the country and Quarterback Mike Glass III earning 2nd team All-MAC honors. However, Eastern Michigan has not faced a defense, or specifically a Secondary, of Pitt’s caliber. Additionally, Pitt has already faced the 1st Team All-MAC Quarterback, Nathan Rourke of Ohio, and kept him well contained. Overall, I wouldn’t expect Eastern Michigan to suddenly start slicing up what has been a dominant Pitt defense.
Obviously, as Pitt fans should realize by now, anything can happen in any given football game. However, Pitt is the heavy favorite and given Pitt’s recent bowl history and the way this season has ended, I don’t think it’s a stretch to call this game a must-win. Despite the disappointment that we fans, and certainly the players, have after the way the season ended it’s understandable that it may be hard for everyone to “get up” for this game. It’s hopefully apparent at this point though that Pitt almost cannot lose this game. Ideally, this is a game that Pitt doesn’t just win, but that they win comfortably. After seemingly no wins this season have come easily, it would be nice to see Pitt go out and blow the doors off the Eagles and win by a score like 45-6. After watching this team play for the past few months, I know that this is likely too much to ask for though. Regardless of how the game actually plays out, a loss would be an embarrassing and devastating way to end the season. While I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Pat Narduzzi should be left in Detroit if Pitt loses the game, a loss should in my opinion put him squarely on the hot seat entering the 2020 season.
* Stats and bowl history courtesy of college football reference
