Put Pitt In: Just a Joke or Real Possibility?

Pitt football’s recent hot streak has put them on the precipice of clinching their first Coastal division title since joining the Atlantic Coast Conference in 2013. With a win over Wake Forest this weekend or a Virginia loss to Georgia Tech, Pitt will guarantee their first ever trip to the ACC Championship Game in a few weeks in Charlotte, North Carolina. In all likelihood, this would result in a blowout loss at the hands of the likely playoff-bound Clemson Tigers, but an upset victory would catapult Pitt into a New Year’s Six bowl game. Given that the Panthers at one point sat at 2-3, with blowout losses to Penn State and UCF and a still inexplicable loss to the awful UNC Tar Heels, the fact that we are talking about them potentially playing in such a marquee game is still a little mind-boggling. Believe it or not though, the Panthers have an opportunity to play in their biggest bowl game since the 2005 Fiesta Bowl.

As privileged as us Panthers’ fans should be feeling right now to even be talking about playing in one of college football’s showcase bowl games, should we be even greedier? The other day I found myself, as I often do in idle moments, playing around with one of fivethirtyeight.com’s interactives. In this case, it was related to Playoff and Conference Title odds for college football teams. Clicking the option to simulate Pitt winning their remaining games returned a result of a 1% chance for the Panthers to be selected for the College Football Playoff. Frankly, given Pitt’s 4 losses I was surprised they had odds that good. After all, no team with multiple losses has ever been selected for the Playoff in it’s brief history.

I tweeted out a screenshot of my find and received several responses, which got me thinking, what would it take to actually get Pitt into the Playoff? Was this actually something that could hypothetically happen if all the cards fell the right way or should I just shut up and be happy that Pitt is in great position to appear in the conference title game? I decided to do some basic research to find out. I will stop here to note that all of the following scenarios described assume that Pitt beats Wake Forest, Miami, and Clemson in the ACC Championship Game to finish 9-4.

First I wanted to see if there has ever been a team in Pitt’s potential position, a Power 5 conference team who despite having 4 regular season losses, qualifies for their conference’s title game and wins it. Because of this, my universe of seasons to look at are 1992-present for the SEC, 1996-2010 and 2017-present for the Big 12, 2005-present for the ACC, 2011-present for the Big 10, and 2011-present for the Pac-12. This is a total of 69 conference champions crowned via winning their title game. Of those teams, only 4 had more than 3 losses entering the conference championship game. Wisconsin in 2012 actually had 5 losses, but they actually had the 3rd best record in their division and went to the title game by virtue of 1st and 2nd placed Ohio State and Penn State having postseason bans that season. Of the other 3 teams, none occurred during the College Football Playoff era, so we have to use other rankings to get an idea of where Pitt may be ranked by the committee should they upset Clemson.

The first of these teams, Texas in 1996 was ranked #20 in the AP Poll released just prior to the bowl games. Nearly a decade later, Florida State was placed at #22 in the final 2005 BCS rankings. A few years later, Virginia Tech received the best placement at #19 in the final 2008 BCS rankings. Even if we look specifically at how the committee has treated multi-loss conference champions, despite none having as many as 4 losses, things aren’t promising. 2015 Stanford, 2016 Penn State, and 2017 Ohio State each had two losses and they were respectively 6th, 5th, and 5th in the final rankings of those seasons. None of this bodes well for Pitt. The Panthers and their 4 losses seem to be just too far out of it unless we have a season even more bonkers than the 2007 season which resulted in two-loss LSU winning the National Championship. So given what remains of this season, how bonkers could things get?

To start with, no team not part of a Power 5 conference, except Notre Dame, has ever been anywhere close to the Top 4 of any Playoff committee ranking. Central Florida, 9th in the current rankings, likely would need some craziness above them to come close, but they would also need to stay undefeated. If they lose just one game, they effectively have no chance of finishing in the Top 4. Whether this is fair or not is irrelevant, it’s just a fact of how the committee seems to operate. Because of this, we’ll assume they lose one of their remaining games to eliminate them as we go about trying to make the remainder of this season as crazy as possible. I should point out as well that there is no universe where a one-loss Central Florida team should be ranked behind a four-loss Pitt team that they demolished, but it also seems like something that the committee could do given how they’ve treated Central Florida the last two seasons.

Now that we’re just focusing on Power 5 teams, things are a little simpler. It would be preferable for Pitt’s chances if Alabama runs the table to go 13-0 to lessen the chances that the committee takes multiple SEC teams. They can be helped in this scenario by Georgia Tech beating Georgia the last weekend of the regular season. Throw in an LSU loss to Texas A&M and no team in the SEC would finish with less than 3 losses in this scenario. It’s a similar story in the Big 10 with Michigan, where winning out would give them a 12-1 record with no other obvious candidates, except perhaps Ohio State, available to steal another bid. Helping Pitt out here would be a potential upset loss by the Buckeyes to Maryland this weekend, leaving the Big 10, like the SEC, with no teams other than the champion with less than 3 losses.

This brings us to the Big 12 and Pac-12, conferences where Pitt really would like to see some chaos. In the former, there is actually a plausible scenario where a 9-2 WVU would play an 8-3 Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. A win by Iowa State would give the Big 12 champion 3 losses, but leave Oklahoma with the best record at 10-2 (scenario requires Oklahoma to beat Kansas, but lose to WVU). In the Pac-12, 9-1 Washington State currently has the inside track for the conference title and a potential playoff bid. However, a loss to Washington in the Apple Cup would give the North division to the Huskies, assuming they beat Oregon State this weekend. In this situation, Herm Edwards and four-loss Arizona State could swoop in and win the conference by winning out and beating Washington in the title game.

This brings us to the last Power 5 conference, the ACC, Pitt’s own conference. Clemson are going to be heavy favorites in each of their next 3 games against Duke, South Carolina, and likely Pitt (in the ACC Championship Game). Even if Pitt were to pull off the upset again, Clemson would finish 12-1 and likely still make the playoff despite not winning the ACC. Despite it being incredibly unlikely, Clemson could lose their last 3 games, which may allow Pitt to leapfrog Clemson in the rankings due to winning the conference and having a head-to-head win, despite Pitt finishing with one more loss. Any situation where Pitt could potentially make the playoff likely relies on Clemson losing out.

Notre Dame could throw another wrench into the equation as they currently sit at 10-0. However, if they lose their last two games, they will be hurt by them being idle during conference championship week. There is precedent for not playing in a conference championship game hurting team’s Playoff hopes in the eyes of the committee, as happened to the Big 12 in 2014 (unless you’re Alabama). Additionally, a more realistic situation similar to this arising may serve as the impetus for Notre Dame to finally join a conference one day (or this year), but that’s a discussion for another time. Losing out would leave Notre Dame at 10-2 and without an opportunity to make a final statement during conference championship weekend.

After going through all of the above scenarios, and based on what we know about how the committee has ranked teams, I was forced to conclude that it’s probably impossible for Pitt to be selected for the Playoff, no matter how bonkers things get over the last few weeks of the season. Under the scenario I’ve described Alabama and Michigan would undoubtedly finish #1 and #2 in the final rankings, as they would be conference champions with 13-0 and 12-1 records respectively. The remaining Power 5 conference champions would be Arizona State (9-4), Pitt (9-4), and Iowa State (9-3). Despite being conference champions, none of these teams would merit serious consideration for the final two spots, as Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Washington State would all be 10-2. The final two teams would likely be chosen from this group. Pitt and the other surprise conference champions, though likely to finish ranked on par with or better than Auburn’s #14 in 2016, but probably not even able to crack the Top 10 as there are several other 3 loss teams beyond the Top 5, not to mention 1-loss UCF.

Honestly, this was the final result I expected when I embarked on this exercise. However, I had to determine for sure that there was no hope. The fact of the matter is that Pitt has too many losses. As long as the College Football Playoff remains in it’s current 4-team format, I can confidently say that there will never be a 4-loss team that makes the field. I think we will see a 2-loss team at some point, and in a truly bonkers season (Like 2007, but crazier) a 3-loss team may qualify (especially if that team is Alabama). Going back to 538’s analysis, their calculations have since changed and if you repeat what I did, they will give Pitt odds of <1%. I believe that the only reason they aren’t 0% is due to the fact that it is a human committee determining the final teams and not a predetermined set of rules for which teams qualify (as you see in pro leagues). It’s the same reason they won’t give Alabama or Clemson 100% if you mark them as winning out, despite the fact that they would undoubtedly be selected in that situation.

This whole exercise, as mentioned above, was an exercise in greed on my part. It’s pretty obvious that Pitt probably had no case to make the playoff without going through this analysis. Myself and any Pitt fan should be content with a Coastal division title and a quality bowl game at this point. To be frank, after the UCF game, I didn’t think Pitt would win more than 4 games. The fact that this team has fought back from their tough start to put themselves in this position is extremely commendable. Though Pitt will not make the Playoff this season, they’ve done plenty to be proud of and have a great shot at a nice finish to the season, so enjoy the ride!

*Poll results courtesy of college football reference

*Current records and remaining schedules courtesy of ESPN

Give us your thoughts on this ridiculous topic by commenting below, posting on our message board, or tweeting at us @IntoPitt or @TheJeemTeam

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