Pitt Game Preview: UCF

Game Four: Pitt (1-2) vs. UCF (3-0)

Saturday, September 21 at 3:30 p.m.

Series Record: Tied 1-1

Last Game: UCF won 45-14 (2018)

Pitt came tantalizingly close to knocking off hated rival Penn State last week in what would have been a pretty major upset. After that disappointment they get no reprieve, as this weekend they play an opponent that will be just as, if not more, difficult. Though the University of Central Florida plays in the G5 American Athletic Conference, the Knights have developed into a premier program. Since joining their current league in 2013, they have appeared in 3 NY6/BCS Bowls, winning 2 of them. They also post an overall record of 55-25, which gets more impressive when you consider that almost half of those losses come from 2015, an anomalous season when they went 0-12. Since 2017, when they began their current run of dominance, they are 28-1 with their only loss coming to LSU in last year’s Peach Bowl. One of those wins came against Pitt last season, when the Panthers travelled down to Orlando and were thoroughly embarrassed. This year the Knights make the return trip and, while knocking them off will still prove a challenge, Pitt has to at the very least hope to make it a closer result.

Offense

I doubt there are any major college football teams that can claim to have had the roller coaster of uncertainty when it comes to who will be playing Quarterback than Central Florida has had the last year. First, their star McKenzie Milton went down with a horrific knee injury against South Florida towards the end of last season that is keeping him out for this entire year. Brandon Wimbush transferred in from Notre Dame and it looked to be a competition between him and Darriel Mack, Jr. to be the starter. However Mack missed all of Fall camp with an ankle injury, so Wimbush got the start in the opener against Florida A&M. However, an injury saw him sidelined for the second game against Florida Atlantic. This paved the way for true freshman Dillon Gabriel to take over starting duties. He played well in that game and got the start last week against Stanford despite Wimbush presumably being cleared to play. With his play last weekend against Stanford (347 yards, 4 touchdowns), he made it awfully hard for UCF Head Coach Josh Heupal to take him out in favor of Wimbush or Mack (who despite being cleared to play has yet to see action). Though Gabriel is likely to start this weekend, regardless of who UCF has lining up behind Center, the Knights seem to be pretty set.

Whoever the Knights have at Quarterback, they’re likely to great protection as they boast a formidable Offensive Line. Over half the starters on the line, Center Jordan Johnson, Left Guard Cole Schneider, and Right Tackle Jake Brown, were 1st Team All-AAC Honorees last season. Joining them are Notre Dame transfer Parker Boudreaux at Right Guard and a healthy Samuel Jackson, who missed most of last season due to injury, at Left Tackle. Jackson, previously exclusively a Guard, is playing at the position for the first time at the collegiate level.

With such a strong Offensive Line, it’s no surprise that UCF boasts impressive rushing figures. They are a true hydra in the backfield, with 4 different Running Backs already topping 100 yards through 3 games. The leading rusher is Greg McCrae, who has 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. Adrian Killins, Jr. is a two-time All-conference honoree and has had 5 receptions for 102 yards to go with his 187 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Bentavious Thompson and Otis Anderson have contributed 193 and 143 yards respectively with 1 and 2 touchdowns. What may be the most impressive of this, is the fact that all four are averaging at least 6 yards per carry. Even against Stanford, their only Power 5 opponent so far, Greg McCrae topped 100 yards and all except Anderson rushed for at least 5 yards per carry.

At receiver, UCF unsurprisingly has plenty of weapons as well. 13 different Knights have recorded a reception and 9 a touchdown reception already this young season. To put those numbers in perspective, Pitt’s figures for those are 10 and 2 respectively, even in the new pass-happy offense. Despite having many options, there are two receivers that will be the primary targets. Tre Nixon has 11 receptions for 149 yards and leads the team in the former. Gabriel Davis has notched 10 receptions for 229 yards and leads the team in the latter. Respectively they’ve contributed 2 and 3 touchdowns. Fellow receivers Marlon Williams and Jacob Harris are other players to watch as they’ve each contributed at least 100 yards and a Touchdown so far (107 yards and 114 yards respectively).

Defense

Though UCF has typically gotten attention for their potent offense, they’re defense has been equally effective at their duty. Through Week 3 they lead the country in Tackles for Loss with 11.3 per game. It should be noted though that they racked up all but 6 of their 34 TFL’s against Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic though. Overall, the UCF defense is raising a lot of hell with their defense, something that can be quantified as a Havoc Rate ([TFL+Passes Defended+Forced Fumbles]/Total Defensive Plays). UCF’s is very high at 21.5% through the first 3 games, though it should be noted that Pitt’s defense is a tick higher at 21.6%. However, like Pitt’s defense, the turnovers haven’t really come for UCF yet. They do have 2 interceptions on the season, but that puts them down at 105th in the country on a per game basis (0.7/game).

The Central Florida Defensive Line lost a lot of experience this offseason. They return only one starter in Defensive End Brendon Hayes. Hayes is very talented though, being named 2nd Team All-AAC last season. He also leads the team with 2 sacks and has 3 total Tackles for Loss. Though the Knights did bring in a couple transfers to shore up this unit, they still have a lot of inexperience along the line outside of Hayes. If there’s a weakness anywhere in the UCF defense, it’s in the trenches.

The Knights are much tougher behind the line, where they often operate a Nickel defensive alignment with 2 Linebackers and 5 Defensive Backs. At Linebacker they are led by Senior Nate Evans, who was 1st Team All-AAC last season and leads the team with 4 TFL’s. UCF is deep at Defensive Backs, which may explain why they try to get so many of them on the field at once. For starters, they return two 1st Team All-AAC guys in Safety Richie Grant and Cornerback Nevelle Clark. They brought in Jordan Hayes, a grad transfer from Duke who actually recorded a sack against Pitt when they played in 2017, to take the place of their only graduating starter in the unit. Even he has seemingly been passed up on the depth chart by Antwan Collier. Aaron Robinson meanwhile has been a bit of a terror at Nickelback, with an Interception and the team lead in Passes Defended (4). Central Florida did lose the services of Junior Brandon Moore for the season when he tore his ACL towards the end of training camp, but they still have a stout unit that has so far given opposing offenses fits.

Special Teams

Central Florida has the challenge this year of replacing virtually their entire special teams unit. Gone are Kicker Matthew Wright, Punter Mac Loudermilk, and Long Snapper Caleb Perez. Replacing Perez is Alex Ward, who spent each of the last two seasons as the backup Long Snapper. First-time kicker Dylan Barnas isn’t off to exactly a stellar start, going 3/ 4 on Field Goals and 19/20 on PAT’s. The Field Goal miss was a 37-yarder against Florida Atlantic with the PAT miss coming in the same game. New Punter Andrew Osteen is off to a middling start, with his 12 punts thus far going for an average 40.8 yards. Otis Anderson, the main punt returner last season, continues to hold down those duties. So far on the season he has averaged 9.6 yards on his 9 return opportunities.

Final Thoughts

After last week’s showing against Penn State, I’m feeling more confident in Pitt’s ability to hang against tough opponents. However, it will still be difficult for the Panthers to knock off UCF. Despite how good the defense has been so far this season, Central Florida has too many weapons and too good an Offensive Line to keep them shut down too much. There’s a reason that this team has scored at least 30 points in 29 straight games. The Panther defense needs to make Dillon Gabriel, another freshman Quarterback, just as uncomfortable as they made Penn State’s Sean Clifford last week. This won’t be easy given how the Knights Offensive Line is very good and likely significantly better than Penn State’s. They’ll need a big game from the Defensive Line to take some pressure off the Secondary, who may quickly find themselves overmatched despite the talent Pitt has within the unit.

The Pitt offense needs to get going as well if their is any chance of an upset. Though the offense as a whole has looked much better than last year, there have still undeniably been growing pains associated with transitioning to “Whippleball”. The good news is that Kenny Pickett may finally be rounding into the Quarterback we all hoped he’d be after the 2017 upset of Miami and he has a couple of standout receivers in Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack. The young Offensive Line continues to improve every week as well. Unfortunately, the running game can’t seem to get things going and that’s resulting in the offense not performing to it’s potential and points being left on the field. More good news is that the UCF Defensive Line is nowhere near the juggernaut that Penn State’s is. If ever there was a week for the Pitt Running Backs to get going, this is it. If they can do that, the offense can sustain more drives which will not only result in more points, but keep the Knights potent offense off the field. If they have another lackluster performance though Pitt won’t have much of a chance.

*Stats courtesy of College Football Reference, ESPN, NCAA, and UCF

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