Pitt Game Preview: Penn State
Game Three: Pitt (1-1) @ Penn State (2-0)
Saturday, September 14 at 12:00 p.m.
Series Record: Penn State 52-43-4
Last Game: Penn State won 51-6 (2018)
This weekend Pitt and Penn State meet for the 100th time in the history of this intra-state rivalry. One of the major talking points surrounding this game has been how it is the final contest between the two schools for the foreseeable future. It is a shame that Penn State has decided that they don’t care enough about this historic rivalry to ensure it is played yearly. Especially since other non-conference rivals around the country have been able to make it work, including Iowa-Iowa State being played this very weekend. However, enough inane takes related to this and other incredibly important matters, such as Pat Narduzzi’s media policy (I’m being sarcastic here), have been and will continue to be made. It may actually be worth something to take a look at what the Panthers will have to deal with when they travel to State College this weekend.
Offense
Penn State had to replace a legend at the most important position this season. Trace McSorley holds the program record for Career Wins by a Quarterback (31), Passing Yards (9,899), and Passing Touchdowns (77). The departure of such a talented and experienced quarterback will undoubtedly lead to some regression in how productive the Nittany Lions’ offense will be this season. The question is of course how well new starter Sean Clifford can mitigate this decline. So far the Sophomore signal-caller has looked fairly impressive, completing 66.7% of his passes for 559 yards, 6 Touchdowns and no Interceptions. He’s also added 108 yards on the ground. The big caveat though is that he racked up these statistics against FCS Idaho and Buffalo. This weekend will be his first career start against a Power 5 opponent.
There’s new faces in the Penn State running game as well with Miles Sanders leaving. However, it’s a deep backfield with no individual really separating themselves from the pack yet. The presumed starter entering this season was Ricky Slade, but he’s gotten off to a slow start with only 17 yards on 8 carries (2.1 average). More impressive have been Journey Brown and true freshman Noah Cain. Brown has 66 yards on only 11 carries (6.0 average) and 2 touchdowns. Cain meanwhile leads the team early in rushing touchdowns with 3 and has a respectable 4.6 average yards per carry. Another true freshman Devyn Ford actually leads the team in rushing yards with 108 on only 7 carries (15.4 average). Overall, this unit hasn’t seen much action yet, but they are deep and full of potential. However, there is concern over an inexperienced Offensive Line that lost 3 starters and 2 backups from a year ago. They gave up 3 sacks last weekend against Buffalo and this may explain some of the under-usage of the running game.
Though Clifford is a first-time starter, he has ample weapons to throw to, which explains somewhat his ability to get off to a fast start. Though Juwan Johnson and Brandon Polk have transferred, they boast an impressive top 2 in KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson. Hamler burst onto the scene as a freshman last year with an impressive 138 yard performance in a losing effort to Ohio State. However, he became infamous for Pitt fans when he tallied two electric touchdowns in the blowout. Believe it or not, Tight End Pat Freiermuth may end up being the receiver to key in on though. He’s become something of a favorite target for Clifford with 9 receptions for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns through the first two games. That yardage total is already over a third of the way to his season total from last year.
Defense
The defensive side of the ball is where the Nittany Lions are going to shine this season. Along the Defensive Line they are led by Right End Yetur Gross-Matos. Last year, he accumulated 20 tackles for loss and 8 sacks. He’s off and running this year with 3 sacks already. Because he lines up on the right side, he will almost exclusively be matched up with Pitt Left Tackle Carter Warren and attacking Kenny Pickett’s blind side. This matchup of course has the potential for a lot of trouble for the Panthers. The defensive front is more than just Gross-Matos though. Shaka Toney on the Left End will keep Pitt Right Tackle Nolan Ulizio’s hands full as well. Additionally, the Penn State tradition of LBU continues with a talented group of Cam Brown, Jan Johnson, and Micah Parsons leading the way for the unit.
If there’s any susceptibility in the Penn State defense, it’s over the top. While the Nittany Lions employ an experienced group in the Secondary, they don’t return very much production. The one exception for that though would be Cornerback John Reid. The Senior was coming off an ACL injury last season and still contributed 8 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He’s already matched that latter total through 2 games and looks to be a shutdown Corner for the Nittany Lions. Elsewhere among the DB’s is Lamont Wade, the former Clairton star who spurned the hometown Panthers to go play in the middle of the state. Wade has finally cracked the starting lineup as a Junior and looks to finally make an impact on the field, though he hasn’t really yet against vastly inferior opposition.
Special Teams
Sophomore Kicker Jake Pinegar is off to a good start this year after a rocky freshman campaign. In his first season he only nailed two-thirds of his kicks, going 16 for 24. This year, he’s a perfect 3 for 3 on Field Goals and 16 for 16 on extra points. However, his longest so far this season is only a 38 yarder, so he has yet to really be tested this season. Punter Blake Gillikin has only been needed 6 times so far this season and is averaging only 39.7 yards per punt. However, his career average is 43.2 so chalk the low figure to small sample size.
Final Thoughts
It was good for Pitt to get the win last week, but Penn State represents a much tougher opponent than Ohio. While we don’t really have too much of a sense of how good the Nittany Lions will be this year due to the quality of their opponents, we can still glean a few things from their first two contests. The first is that they’ll probably be alright at Quarterback with Sean Clifford. While he’s no McSorley, he has thus far played mistake-free football and has several weapons in the passing game that will make his life a lot easier. The next is that they haven’t found a replacement for Miles Sanders at Running Back, though they have a few promising options. It will be interesting to see how the various members of the backfield are utilized and how much of a rushing attack the Nittany Lions will actually have. Finally, the defense is Penn State’s strength and they are going to rely on that Front 7 to win them a lot of games. Gross-Matos and the rest of the Defensive Line is likely going to give the Panthers fits on Saturday and it could end up being a long frustrating day for the Panthers on offense because of that.
So the real question is, as talented as the Nittany Lions appear to be, do the Panthers have a chance of pulling off the upset? I’m going to say yes. This team has proven that they can pull off the shocking upset from time to time. Additionally, the strong play of the defense leads me to believe that they’ll be able to keep the team in most games, even when they’re outmatched overall. No saying they have a chance is different than believing they’ll actually do it. Generally to pull off these upsets, you need to limit the number of drives that the opposing team has and get some turnover luck. For the first matter, ironically Shawn Watson’s old scheme would’ve been much better at ball control. However, I’m not advocating Pitt adopts that strategy by any means because we know that doesn’t work against a defense as talented as Penn State’s. No, Pitt needs to have a healthy balance between running and passing and when they do pass Pickett needs to get rid of it quickly to neutralize the powerful Defensive Line. It also wouldn’t hurt to connect on a long pass early to force the Penn State defense to respect it and prevent them from loading the box all game. As for the turnover luck, that comes down to luck exactly as it says and cannot really be controlled. However, for as good as Pitt’s defense has been through the first two games, they have yet to force a turnover. Chances are that that’ll change soon, but they need it to happen this weekend if they’re finish off this series with a victory.
*Stats courtesy of College Football Reference
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