Pat Narduzzi Faces a Pivotal Season

The current era of Pitt football can have said to have begun the day after Christmas in 2014. That was the day that Michigan State Defensive Coordinator Pat Narduzzi was introduced as the new Head Coach of the Panthers. This followed what can charitably be described as several years of turmoil at the position. Barring something unforeseen, Pat Narduzzi will kick off his 4^th season on the job in September, providing Pitt with this level of stability at Head Coach for the first time in 10 years.

The first 3 years of this era have certainly had their ups and downs. From the highs of thrilling victories over Penn State and eventual National Champion Clemson, to the lows of a historically inept defensive performance against Oklahoma State last year, to the bizarre of whatever was going on against Syracuse the Saturday after Thanksgiving 2016, nobody can say Pitt football under Narduzzi has been boring. However, after Narduzzi took the Panthers to bowls in each of his first two seasons, they suffered the ignominy of staying home over the holidays this past winter for the first time since 2007. Despite ending the season on a high note with an upset over previously undefeated Miami (again ups and downs), Pitt undeniably had a disappointing season. After finishing 5-7 last year, Pat Narduzzi faces a pivotal season and he needs to have the Panthers bowling in 2018 or he will be firmly in the “Hot Seat”.

Narduzzi came in and had relative success right away, guiding Pitt to an 8-4 record in his first season. This represented a not insignificant step forward from the purgatory of 6-6 records that Pitt had been mired in for the previous four seasons. He was able to replicate the record the next year thanks to a momentous offensive output. However, it was undeniable that the defense under Narduzzi was bad and had gotten worse in each of his three seasons. The credit, and blame, for both rests on former Head Coach Paul Chryst. While Narduzzi was, “playing with Chryst’s players” there was an asterisk next to all his accomplishments, as well as his setbacks. It’s at the point though that this argument, either way, cannot really be applied any more.

There are still a few Redshirt Seniors who were brought in by Chryst in the 2014 recruiting class dotting the roster, most notably Alex Bookser, Quintin Wirginis, and Qadree Ollison, as well as key former walk-ons George Aston and Oluwaseun Idowu. However, Narduzzi and his staff have brought in almost every key cog in most position groups. The entire Secondary has been built with his vision and there are high hopes for the unit despite the departures of Jordan Whitehead and Avonte Maddox to the NFL. This unit will be led by players like Damar Hamlin, Paris Ford, and Jason Pinnock over the next few years. These are all players brought in by Narduzzi and the progress of the Secondary, probably more than any position group will be indicative of Narduzzi’s success at implementing his vision. The single most important position on the field, Quarterback, will also be held down by a Narduzzi recruit. Kenny Pickett has gained a lot of hype since his brief stint as the Starting Quarterback at the end of last season. He has a lot of eyes on him now as he enters his first full season leading the Offense and his continuing development will be another metric by which Narduzzi (and Offensive Coordinator Shawn Watson) should be evaluated. Outside these areas, the majority of the rest of the roster are players brought in under the current regime. Despite there still being several key players brought in under the previous regime, make no mistake, this is Narduzzi’s team.  If the team underachieves from now on it is due to a failure of recruiting and development by Narduzzi and his staff.

Narduzzi’s team will certainly be tested this year. In addition to the usual difficult ACC games against Miami and Virginia Tech, Pitt faces a bear of a non-conference schedule. Other than FCS Albany, every non-conference opponent will likely be ranked to begin the season. Additionally, while they do get Penn State at home, they will have to contend with UCF and Notre Dame on the road. The substantial difficulty of Pitt’s slate even received national recognition, with ESPN rating it the toughest non-conference schedule in the country. While Pitt will have a rough road to navigate this season, its demanding nature is no excuse for the Panthers to miss the postseason again.

To state the obvious, Pitt will need 6 wins to make a bowl game this year (I’m going to ignore the slim chance that they make a bowl as a 5-win team). Doing a brief schedule analysis, we can look at the path to 6 wins. Each game can be categorized as one of five likely outcomes: Likely Pitt win (80%-100% chance to win), Probable Pitt win (60%-80%), Toss-up (40%-60%), Probable Pitt loss (20%-40%), Likely Pitt loss (0%-20%). While some (or many) may disagree with how I categorize the games, this is how I view the upcoming season:

Taking the middle of these ranges, we get an unscientific estimate of the “Expected Wins” for each game (50% = .5 “Expected Wins”). Adding these “Expected Wins” results in exactly 6 wins for Pitt (.9 + .3 + .7 + .5 + .3 + .9 + .1 + .5 + .9 + .3 + .5 + .1 = 6.0).

I will add that I categorized the games under the assumption that Pitt will get only average play from the Quarterback and Defense as a whole. Pitt didn’t get that at all until the end of the season last year, but I think it’s safe to say they will have it next season barring significant injuries. There’s also many who believe that Pitt has a special Quarterback in Kenny Pickett and that the defense has the potential to be the shutdown group that has been promised since Pitt hired Narduzzi. Even if this hoped-for potential doesn’t come to fruition, improvement from Kenny Pickett and the relatively inexperienced players in the Secondary should be expected. Because of this, one could argue that 6 wins is a conservative estimate. This is all to say that the path to 6 wins is not as treacherous as it may appear and that it shouldn’t be used as an excuse if the Panthers are home over the holidays.

There’s a bit or urgency regarding players not even on the roster yet when it comes to this season as well. Simply put, Pitt cannot afford another down year on the field lest recruiting is affected. Pitt recruiting has generally been a bit better under Narduzzi compared with how it was under Chryst (and Todd Graham). However, it has yet to get to the levels it enjoyed under Dave Wannstedt, who routinely had Pitt ranked in the Top 30 nationally and as high as 21^st (according to Rivals). While Narduzzi did have one Top 30 class (2016 at #29), it came during his first full recruiting cycle, when coaches often bring in their best classes. Since then, Narduzzi’s classes have taken a step down in quality, finishing 38^th in 2017 (7^th in ACC) and 36^th in 2018 (8^th in ACC). The still in progress Class of 2019 currently fits right in with the past two at 37^th (10^th in ACC).

If Narduzzi fails to guide his team to a bowl for the 2^nd year in a row, it will make it difficult for him to finish the current class strong. Getting recruits on the promise of future greatness and building something usually works well early in a coach’s tenure. That message will get stale awfully fast if Pitt finishes under .500 again though. Narduzzi’s recruiting classes have plateaued in the rankings lately. However, if the current team, made up of almost entirely his players as mentioned above, doesn’t start producing soon that quality may start to regress. Pitt needs to have a good season to show recruits that there’s something to what Narduzzi has been selling.

Despite my presenting arguments that may make it sound like I’m advocating for Pat Narduzzi to be on the “Hot Seat”, I would like to emphasize that he is not, and should not, be on the “Hot Seat” at this moment. He still has good will from his first two seasons when he won 8 games each and there’s still that contract extension he signed last December. Firing him at some point this upcoming season may be financially difficult, but more importantly it’s a sign of support from Heather Lyke and the rest of the administration. However, the firing of several other coaches throughout the athletic department, most notably Kevin Stallings and Suzie McConnell-Serio former men’s and women’s basketball coaches respectively, have made it clear that Lyke will not hesitate to replace a coach if she feels they aren’t up to scratch. Narduzzi is not on the “Hot Seat” and he may never be, but he undoubtedly has a lot on the line. If Pitt fails to qualify for a bowl game again, it may be indicative of a failure to bring quality players into the program, identify under-the-radar talent, develop players, and lead them on game day on his part. For that reason, this is a pivotal season for Narduzzi and the Pitt Football program.

Agree with me? Think I’m way off? Let us know by tweeting Dream Backfield @IntoPitt or directly at me @TheJeemTeam