Know Your Foe: North Carolina
Pitt-North Carolina Preview
Game Three: Pitt (2-1) @ North Carolina (0-2)
Last Week
Pitt got back on track with a win 24-19 win over Georgia Tech. North Carolina’s game against Central Florida was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.
North Carolina Offense
The Tar Heels come into this game hamstrung by a series of suspensions for players selling of university-issued sneakers. Most prominent of those suspensions on offense has to be Quarterback Chazz Surratt. The Pitt game will be the final game of his suspension, with Nathan Elliott having been signal-caller in his absence. Last year, Elliott had a good day against the Panthers, going 20 for 31 for 235 yards and throwing 2 Touchdowns against 0 Interceptions. However, that game looks like it has been a high-water mark in his career to this point and he has well-documented accuracy issues. With a stouter defense and more tape available, I expect the Panthers to do a much better job containing Elliott.
The Tar Heels most dangerous offensive weapon is Wide Receiver Anthony Ratliff-Williams. He had a career day against Pitt last year. In addition to his 5 receptions for 75 yards, one of which went for a Touchdown, he opened the game with a kickoff return Touchdown, and threw a Touchdown on a trick play. Through the first two games of the season, he has 7 receptions for 146 yards and a Touchdown. Antonio Williams, a transfer from Ohio State, is North Carolina’s primary Running Back. Through two games the Junior has 143 yards, but with 6.2 average yards per rush. Additionally, he had already amassed 96 yards against East Carolina before he was ejected in the 2nd quarter. Despite these dangerous weapons at the skill positions, the UNC Offensive Line is a work in progress, with little experience in the trenches.
North Carolina Defense
Just as North Carolina is missing their offensive leader due to suspension for this game, they will also be missing a player that could be considered their defensive leader. Defensive End Malik Carney, who is considered by many to be the best player on their defense, will not be available for the Tar Heels this weekend. Because many of the suspensions were staggered, he did play in the season-opening loss to Cal. In that game he was a force, with 8 tackles and 2.5 sacks. His presence was sorely missed against East Carolina and it will likely be missed by North Carolina this weekend as well. Elsewhere in the trenches, Aaron Crawford is also out with suspension. Even without these missing pieces, the Tar Heels don’t exactly have a fearsome Front 7 and without them East Carolina had a field day with 220 total rushing yards.
The Secondary is definitely the strength of their defense. The experienced unit even gets a boost due to the return of Cornerbacks Tre Shaw and Greg Ross from their sneaker-gate suspensions. Despite this, they could be hampered as well as the unit’s top player, Safety Myles Dorn is questionable to play against Pitt. The top UNC Linebackers so far this season are Juniors Dominique Ross and Jonathan Smith. Ross has 1.5 tackles for loss and a team leading 4 passes defended. Smith has 1.5 sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble.
North Carolina Special Teams
While North Carolina has questions throughout offense and defense, things are pretty set at Special Teams. Kicker Freeman Jones is 5 for 5 on Field Goal attempts this year with a long of 49. The Senior, only in his second year as the full-time Kicker is already over halfway to his Field Goal total from last season. Senior Hunter Lent handles the Punting duties and has an average of 43.2 yards per punt this season.
Key Matchup – Anthony Ratliff-Williams vs. Pitt Secondary
Anthony Ratliff-Williams burned Pitt last year and, despite his Quarterback’s accuracy issues, remains a dangerous threat. Despite there appearing to be some improvement in Pitt’s struggles in the Secondary, they remain susceptible, particularly with the Safeties. While Ratliff-Williams will likely primarily be going against starting Cornerbacks Dane Jackson and Phillipie Motley, the Tar Heels will likely work to get him isolated with a Safety given Pitt’s demonstrated weakness there. Combine that with the Panther’s liberal rotations in the back end and it will be up to the entire Secondary to contain him and the other North Carolina receivers.
Prediction: Pitt 34-20
North Carolina is the only Coastal division team that the Panthers haven’t beaten since they joined the ACC 5 years ago. Though I said this last year, I expect this to finally be the year they get the better of the Tar Heels. I expect Pitt to run almost at will against North Carolina’s weak rush defense. While the Tar Heels offensive weapons will test the Panthers defense, they should be much more successful at stopping Elliott this year. Additionally, North Carolina was blown out in their most recent game by East Carolina, a team that will probably end up being among the worst in FBS this year and who lost to FCS North Carolina A&T in their first game. While it can often be foolish to put too much stock in the transitive property in college football, it shows that this is a team that is pretty bad and that they are reeling. Pitt can’t exactly be considered to be world-beaters, especially given that their historic beatdown at the hands of Penn State was still only two weeks ago. However, I expect Pitt to have their way with the Tar Heels and win by about two Touchdowns.
*Stats courtesy of College Football Reference
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