Game Preview: Syracuse

Game Seven: Pitt (4-2) vs. Syracuse (3-3)

Friday, October 18 at 7:00 p.m.

Series Record: Pitt leads 39-31-3

Last Game: Pitt won 44-37 in OT (2018)

Line: Pitt Favored by 4

The Panthers return after a bye week for a Friday night game in the Dome against the Syracuse Orange. The Panthers’ longtime nemesis came into the season with high expectations, finding themselves ranked in the preseason AP Poll for the first time since 1998. They haven’t lived up to those expectations in any way so far though. After opening the season with a lackluster 24-0 win over the barely-FBS Liberty Flames, they were pasted by Maryland 63-20. A week three matchup with Clemson that was pegged by many as the key game in determining the Atlantic division was more embarrassment for the Orange as they fell 41-6. They reeled off a two game winning streak to get above .500 with wins over Western Michigan and Holy Cross, but looked awful in a 16-10 defeat to NC State last week.

Already sitting at 0-2 with a loss to Clemson, the Orange’s preseason hopes of contending for an ACC Title are virtually over. With no more games that look like likely wins, it will be a battle for Syracuse just to get to bowl eligibility. This certainly isn’t the season that was expected from the team that was widely anointed as the 2nd best team in the conference all summer. The Orange get this game at home though and the Dome is always a difficult place to play. Though Pitt hasn’t lost to the Orange in Pittsburgh since 2001, they are 2-2 in their last 4 games in Syracuse, with all 4 games being decided by a Field Goal or less. Overall, since 2002 the Panthers are 14-3 against the Orange, but all of those losses took place in the Dome. Despite Pitt being favored in this game, Syracuse is more than capable of giving them all they can handle.

Offense

Much of the hype surrounding Syracuse before the season seemed to hinge on the assumption that their potent offense from a year ago would remain so due to Quarterback Tommy DeVito. Former Quarterback Eric Dungey was a true threat with his legs, but still racked up the passing yards and became the program’s all-time leading passer. Despite losing him, there was excitement around DeVito as he was the highest rated Quarterback signing for the Orange since the modern recruiting ratings became a thing. As Pitt fans found out last year though, just because a Quarterback is hyped, doesn’t mean he will deliver on it. While he hasn’t been bad, he hasn’t been outstanding and he’s racked up most of his stats in Syracuse’s wins over lesser competition. Additionally, he isn’t the threat with his legs that Dungey was, which completely takes away a key element of Syracuse’s offense from last year.

The Orange utilize their Running Backs heavily in the passing game, with each of their top 2 already with double digit receptions. As for those top 2, Moe Neal is the featured back with 348 yards on 80 carries and 3 touchdowns. That works out to a decent 4.4 average per carry. However, this figure is on track to be the lowest of his career, as he’s averaged over 5 yards per carry each of the three previous seasons. The other prominent member of the backfield, Abdul Adams, is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Syracuse does have a breakout player and potential star at Wide Receiver in Trishton Jackson. The Junior sat out every game last year except the bowl game as he had transferred in from Michigan State. He’s made up for lost time this year though with 499 yards receiving on only 33 receptions with 6 touchdowns. Other than Jackson, the ball has been distributed pretty evenly, with 6 other players recording double digit receptions.

Overall, the Syracuse offense has been pretty lackluster this season, especially compared with last year’s unit. That group led the Orange to scoring 40.1 points per game, good for 11th in FBS. Through 6 games this season, the Orange are scoring only 25.5 points per game, plummeting to 91st in the country. This is even with the relatively easy non-conference games out of the way. The loss of Dungey has undoubtedly been felt, but the Orange have also had to replace 3 starters on the Offensive Line and one of the new starters, Center Sam Heckel, hasn’t played since the first half of the first game. Needless to say, things are thin up front for the Syracuse offense. Last week alone, the unit gave up 8 sacks against NC State. For the season they’ve given up 26, the fourth most in the nation. This more than anything may be the cause for the Orange’s offensive deficiencies. 

Defense

The Orange Defensive Line is, unlike their Offensive counterpart, a stout unit. They’re an experienced unit and it has shown. 5 of the guys that play in the trenches have multiple sacks. Overall they have 11.5 sacks and 20 total Tackles for Loss. First year starter at Defensive End Alton Robinson has especially broken out this season. He has 6 Tackles for Loss, 2 sacks, and a Forced Fumble on the season. What really stands out for him are his 3 Passes Defended from a position that doesn’t often have many opportunities for rack those up. I’ll note that I assume that they are likely passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.

Behind the line, things are a lot less certain for the Syracuse defense. Veteren Lakiem Williams leads the Linebacking corps and has a team high 43 tackles, including 5 for a loss and 3.5 sacks. However, the secondary is a big question mark with Andre Cisco doubtful for the game this weekend. The preseason All-American hasn’t played since the loss to Clemson and despite travelling to NC State last weekend is still not expected to play. Also missing since the Clemson game and unlikely to play will be Cornerback Ifeatu Melifonwu. The Syracuse defense has 7 interceptions on the season, but 5 came during the first 3 games with those players in the lineup.

Special Teams

Syracuse has a talented kicker in Andre Szmyt. Though the Sophomore is very talented, he was named a Consensus All-American and won the Lou Groza Award despite there being 8 kickers with a higher Field Goal percentage, 3 of whom had at least 20 attempts and didn’t have the luxury of playing half of their games in a dome. That’s neither here nor there though. This year he’s only had the opportunity to attempt 7 Field Goals, missing 1. He also missed an extra point for the first time in his career. He’s still very good and the Orange will be in good hands if the game comes down to a kick. Sterling Hofrichter handles punting duties and is 17th in the country with a 46.0 yard average.

Final Thoughts

This game will not likely emulate last year’s contest between these two teams. That was a high-scoring back and forth affair decided in Overtime. With Syracuse fielding a less potent offense and Pitt’s defense developing into a dominant force, the Orange will be hard-pressed to get points. However, the Panthers may have difficulty moving the ball on the ground as it has been a struggle all season and the Orange boast a tough Defensive front. However, with the passing game developing and the Syracuse secondary depleted, the Panthers should be able to move the ball through the air.

On paper, this is a game Pitt should win fairly easy. There’s a reason that they’re only favored by 4 though. Syracuse has proven to be a tough out at home, particularly for the Panthers. They have also played in close games almost every week this season. In all likelihood, Pitt can’t play like they did against Duke, where they turned the ball over 4 times and committed 15 penalties, and expect to escape with a win again. However, if Pitt plays a clean disciplined game like they did against Penn State (0 turnovers, 2 penalties) then they should win comfortably. 

Before wrapping up, it’s worth mentioning that Paris Ford will unfortunately be suspended for the 1st half due to the horrible targeting call against him from the Duke game. Though the rest of the Pitt secondary is deep and should be fine without him for a half, the Orange need to take advantage of this early. If Pitt jumps out to a lead at halftime, it will be awfully hard for Syracuse to play catch up with a fully rested Ford available in the 2nd half.

* Series history courtesy of Winsipedia

* Stats courtesy of College Football Reference

* Other information courtesy of Syracuse

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