Game Preview: Duke
Game Six: Pitt (3-2) vs. Duke (3-1)
Saturday, October 5 at 8:00 p.m.
Series Record: Pitt leads 14-9
Last Game: Pitt won 54-45 (2018)
Pitt turns the page on their non-conference schedule and begins ACC play in earnest this weekend when they travel down to Durham, North Carolina to play the Duke Blue Devils. This is actually Pitt’s first game this season outside of Pennsylvania and it will come under the bright lights in primetime on the ACC Network. Since joining the ACC in 2013 the Panthers have pretty much had their way with Duke, winning 5 of their 6 conference matchups and the only loss coming in Double Overtime in 2014. Last year’s game was a high-scoring affair, with Duke leading the majority of the game, but with Pitt staying within striking distance throughout. Pitt tied it late on an Alex Kessman Field Goal and then, after a defensive stop, won it on a 25 yard Touchdown pass from Kenny Pickett to Maurice Ffrench with 5 seconds left. They tacked on a Safety for good measure in the confusion of a Duke desperation play as time expired.
This year, Duke has lost some key pieces. Former Quarterback Daniel Jones was infamously taken at 6th overall by the New York Giants. Wide Receivers T.J. Rahming and Johnathan Lloyd, who torched Pitt last year for 78 and 136 yards respectively with a combined 3 touchdowns, have also moved on. However, Running Back Deon Jackson, who lit up Pitt for 162 yards on only 10 carries a year ago, returns. Not to mention, the signal caller replacing Jones is also appears to be pretty damn good. Despite these losses, Duke has gotten off to a decent start at 3-1 and blew the doors off of Virginia Tech last weekend. However, they haven’t faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of Pitt’s in any of their wins.
Offense
Duke Quarterback Quentin Harris is finally “the guy” this season after spending the past couple seasons backing up Daniel Jones. Despite this, Harris came into the season with a decent amount of experience under his belt, having played in 22 games over the past two seasons and taking over for the injured Jones as starter for a two-game span early last year. Most of his prior experience was primarily in the running game (against Pitt last season he actually scored 2 touchdowns on 6 rushes), however this year he’s proven that he has a decent arm as well. So far he has completed 72.9% of his passes and is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. More impressively he has 10 Touchdown passes against only 2 Interceptions. Harris won’t wow you by putting up big numbers generally, but he has been a very efficient passer and is a danger with his legs. On that topic, he is actually the team’s leading rusher with 303 yards and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. This is a product of the Duke offense utilizing a lot of designed Quarterback runs and they have even busted out the Triple Option at times.
Just because Harris is the leading rusher, doesn’t mean that the Blue Devils don’t have a dangerous designated Running Back. Junior Deon Jackson of course had a heck of a game against Pitt last year, but hasn’t had a similar type of game yet this season. He’s a steady presence though, having rushed for at least 50 yards in every game against a team not named Alabama this season. His best game may have come last week when, despite only getting 9 carries, he still had a 6.1 average, finishing with 55 yards and a touchdown. Also in the backfield is Mataeo Durant. Durant has been somewhat disappointing as the Number 2 back, averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on 37 carries. This unit got a lot thinner as well with the recent news that Brittain Brown, who has been more effective in limited action with 4.7 yards per carry on only 12 attempts, will miss the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury.
As mentioned above, a couple Duke receivers who gave Pitt fits last year are now gone. This unit is definitely one with relatively little experience with Rahming and Lloyd now gone. Jalon Calhoun leads the Wide Receivers with 18 receptions and 3 Touchdowns and is only a Freshman. Meanwhile, the next Wide Receiver in terms of receptions is Aaron Young, who despite being a Senior only appeared in 13 games prior to this season. He does boast 159 yards on only 12 receptions though for 2 touchdowns. Duke really likes to spread things around though with Running Backs and Tight Ends as prominent options and, as mentioned above, many designed Quarterback runs. In fact, the team’s leading receiver is something of a breakout player in Tight End Noah Gray. The Junior has yet to play in a full season’s complement of games, but he has proven to be Quentin Harris’ favorite target, with 22 receptions. Duke does have some depth back among the Wide Receivers, as Sophomore Jake Bobo returned last week against Virginia Tech.
The Duke Offensive Line boasts one of the conference’s top Center’s in Jack Wohlabaugh. The anchor of the unit, he was named ACC Offensive Lineman of the week for his performance against Virginia Tech. Overall though there isn’t much experience or depth, as they have been forced to start Freshmen at the two Tackle positions.(Jacob Monk and Casey Holman). The unit has been solid in pass protection, as they’ve only given up one sack this season, but a lot of that may be the product of having a running quarterback and a generally low level of competition over the last three games. They struggled mightily in the first quarter against Virginia Tech last week and can’t afford to replicate that at all against Pitt’s dominant Defensive Line.
Defense
Duke was dealt a blow to their defense before the season even opened as their former All-American Cornerback Mark Gilbert was initially ruled out for Fall camp and then for the entire season. Otherwise though, they’ve been overall fairly healthy on this side of the ball. The Defensive Line is experienced and has been solid so far this season. Senior Defensive End Tre Hornbuckle has led the way with 2 sacks and a forced fumble. The other Senior starter on the line, Edgar Cerenord, has also contributed a sack. It must be noted thought that all of these sacks came against lower level schools Middle Tennessee State and North Carolina A&T though.
The Linebacking corps is led by Koby Quansah. The Senior leads the team with 37 tackles and is well on his way to blowing past his previous career high of 51. He’s also contributed 3.5 tackles for loss, including 1.5 sacks, and a pass defended. Last week’s 13 tackle effort was enough to earn himself ACC Linebacker of the Week honors. Brandon Hill has generally been the only other starting Linebacker, as the Blue Devils run a Nickel defense (4 DL, 2 LB, 5 DB) as their base.
By utilizing five Defensive Backs, the Blue Devils are definitely playing to their strengths. Even without Gilbert, this is one of the best Secondaries in the conference. Leonard Johnson and Josh Blackwell are the two Cornerbacks, and will likely be tasked with going against Pitt’s strong receiving tandem of Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack. Johnson has three passes defended and an interception through the first four games. Though Blackwell also has two passes defended, he is also starting in place of the injured Gilbert and will be the guy that the Panther offense should try to pick on. Marquis Waters and Michael Carter are the Free and Strong Safeties respectively. Both seem to be all over the field with pass defended each and 1.0 and 0.5 tackles for loss respectively. Nickelback Dylan Singleton is the star of the unit though. He has a forced fumble and recovery, 3.5 tackles for loss (including a sack), and is second on the team in tackles with 34.
Taken as a whole, Duke fields a pretty decent defense. They’re only surrendering 20.8 points per game and 339.8 yards per game, good for 38th and 42nd in the nation respectively. However the former figure is actually slightly worse than what UCF, a team Pitt scored 35 points on, is giving up and the latter is worse than every team has played this year except for Ohio. In fact there are several important stats where Duke is the worst team Pitt has faced this year except for Ohio, including Pass Completion Percentage Allowed, Rush Yards per Game Allowed, and Average Yards per Play Allowed. This isn’t to knock Duke’s defense at all, but to say that Pitt has played some really good defenses and that they likely won’t be intimidated by what Duke throws at them. Especially considering that most of their schedule has come against pretty bad competition.
Special Teams
Duke Kicker A.J. Reed has had an interesting career trajectory in Durham. He held kicking duties as a Freshman in 2016, but only went 3 for 10 and didn’t attempt one each of the next two seasons. He took the job back this year and so far has been perfect, going 17 for 17 on PAT’s and 5 for 5 on Field Goals, including a 50-yarder against North Carolina A&T. Senior Austin Parker is handling Punting duties, his third full season doing so. He has a career average of 41.4 yards per punt.
Final Thoughts
When the lines opened for this game earlier this week, Pitt was generally a 6 to 7 point underdog. They’re still an underdog, but that line has plummeted to the 3 to 4 point range. I understand why Pitt dropped so far, they had nearly been upset by Delaware last week and everyone had already forgotten that this was the team that also knocked off UCF and took a suddenly powerful looking Penn State team to the wire. There are some injury concerns with the Panthers, but Narduzzi has already come out and said that Kenny Pickett is 100%, something the famously tight-lipped head coach never seems to do. With Pickett running the show and facing a defense that is much less scary than some of the loaded units they’ve played thus far, this seems like a game where the offense could break out.
The offense could of course sputter, as they have for many stretches this season. However, the Pitt defense can and has kept the team in games due to their stout play. Quentin Harris is an electric Quarterback, but the Panthers have already faced Nathan Rourke and Bryce Perkins, other dual-threats, and have largely succeeded. Additionally, while the Duke Offensive Line has only given up one sack this season, with apologies to North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee State, and Virginia Tech, they haven’t faced a defensive front of Pitt’s caliber since their opening game against Alabama.
Despite this confidence, this is a game that Pitt can easily lose. The key is to contain Harris though and to not make any dumb mistakes on offense. If they allow him to run free and get the entire offense clicking and do the stupid things that almost cost them the Delaware game last weekend, Duke will win this game easily. However, if they play like they should have shown in the past that they’re able, they will come home with a win and their first ACC win of the season. If they lose though, they can pretty much forget already about repeating as Coastal champs.
Stats courtesy of College Football Reference. Series history courtesy of winsipedia.com.
