Pitt Hoops Game Preview: Pitt vs. Wake Forest

Pitt (10-3) begins their most challenging stretch of the season on Saturday, Jan. 4, as they face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) at the Petersen Events Center at noon.

Of course, Pitt’s 10-3 record does not necessarily reflect the ups and downs that the team faced throughout the fall, highlighted by an exhilarating opening win against Florida State, and an excruciating home loss against Nicholls State.

Pitt did seem to hit their stride toward the end of out-of-conference play, though, as they seemed better at limiting the turnovers and shooting a bit better from beyond the arc in wins over Northern Illinois, Binghamton, and Canisius.

Importantly, Ryan Murphy and Justin Champagnie shot a combined 9-13 from three-point range against Canisius, which also marked Gerald Drumgoole’s first game back from a lingering ankle injury. Drumgoole gives Pitt a longer bench for the always-competitive ACC slate, while Murphy and Champagnie provide optimism about Pitt’s ability to hit open shots from outside.

And now, Pitt has a chance to build on those improvements and show that they are once again ready to regularly compete with decent ACC teams, following a brutal stretch between the 2016-17 and 2018-19 seasons, during which Pitt won just seven total ACC games across three seasons.

In some ways, this is the perfect way for Pitt to start its ACC slate: a matchup against a middling ACC program in their own building, with a chance to show some consistency and improve to 2-1 in ACC play before hitting the road against North Carolina next week.

Given the highs and lows that the Panthers have already endured this season, it would come as no surprise to see Pitt win this afternoon, nor would it be a surprise to see Pitt lose. However, securing a victory would be enormous in terms of building confidence and momentum heading deeper into ACC play.

Fast Facts

Wake Forest is coached by arguably one of the greatest college basketball players of all time in Danny Manning, who posted 20.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game over 147 career games with Kansas, all while winning the national championship and the Wooden Award in 1988, in addition to thrice being named a consensus All American and Big 8 Player of the Year.
Manning as a coach, however, has not been quite as successful: he’s in his sixth season as the Demon Deacons’ head coach, and has posted just a 72-98 record, including 11-20 marks in each of the past two seasons.
Prior to Manning’s tenure, Wake Forest had lost its identity as a college basketball powerhouse, partially due to significant coaching turnover throughout the past decade.
Following a 12-year stint by Dave Odom which featured eight NCAA tournament appearances and three top-10 finishes, the Demon Deacons were led by Skip Prosser to four more tournament appearances and two more top-10 finishes prior to his tragic passing in 2007.
Since Prosser, Wake Forest has had three head coaches who have led Wake to just three NCAA tournament appearances in 12 seasons and just one top-25 finish. They have not won more than nine ACC games since 2008-09.
Wake Forest currently sits at no. 93 in KenPom’s college basketball rankings, while Pitt is holding steady at no. 74. The Panthers, especially at home, should be the favorite in today’s contest.

Wake Forest Preview

Wake Forest is led by senior guard Brandon Childress, who averages 16.3 points and 4.5 assists over 34.7 minutes per game. Childress has also been a respectable three-point shooter throughout his college career, hitting threes at a 0.367 clip prior to a disappointing start to this season (just 0.302 through 12 games).

The Demon Deacons have two other scorers averaging more than 10.0 points per game, including 7-foot-0 junior center Olivier Sarr, who is averaging 13.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game so far. Their other double-digit scorer is junior Chaundee Brown, currently averaging 13.6 points per game.

As far as team strengths and weaknesses, Wake Forest is a pretty strong free throw shooting team, hitting 75.4 percent of their attempts. They’re also a decent three-point shooting team, with a 0.343 three-point field goal percentage on the year.

On the other side of that coin, hey have struggled in several key areas including forcing defensive turnovers, where they rank no. 329 in the country with 149 through 12 games (for comparison, Pitt has forced 214 turnovers through 13 games). They also rank near the bottom of the NCAA in two-point field goal percentage (0.458), steals (69), and points allowed per game (72.4).

With that in mind, it is unsurprising that Wake Forest’s 7-5 start to the 2019-20 season includes disappointing losses against Boston College (KenPom no. 145), and Charlotte (KenPom no. 167). They have notched some good wins in the early going too, though, including victories over Xavier (KenPom no. 29) and Davidson (KenPom no. 79).

Still, no ACC contest is a given, and Pitt and Wake Forest are similarly ranked in a number of statistical categories. Meanwhile, Pitt struggles more than the Demon Deacons in some key categories including three-point shooting and free throw shooting. When all is said and done, it should be a pretty competitive game.

Pitt’s Keys to the Game

So what does Pitt need to do to beat Wake Forest in their first January contest? Here are the Keys to the game.

Keep Wake Forest away from the free throw line.

Wake Forest’s best win of the season by a mile is their 80-78 home win over Xavier. They shot pretty well from beyond the arc (7-for-16) and they did a decent job limiting the turnovers (13, compared with a season average of nearly 15 per game), but the biggest factor in the win?

In a two-point win over a KenPom top-30 team, Wake Forest made 21 free throws out of 27 attempts. If Wake Forest had gotten to the line just four fewer times, they very well may have lost that contest. Keep in mind that Wake Forest is ranked in the top-50 nationally in free throw percentage. Their skill from the free throw line is not a fluke–if you let them get to the line a lot, you will pay for it.

Pitt has done a very solid job of keeping some of their opponents away from getting to the line this season. In fact, they have limited opponents to 10 or fewer free throws in seven of their 13 games this season. That includes two extremely impressive efforts against Northern Illinois (just two attempts), and Binghamton (five attempts).

That success is not simply limited to mid-major teams, though. Pitt also limited Louisville and Rutgers to just 10 attempts. A similar effort against Wake Forest on Saturday would go a long way to ensuring a Pitt victory. It starts with discipline on the defensive end, an area in which Pitt has shown great skill this year.

Keep hitting the three ball.

Wake Forest is only decent at defending against the three-pointer, allowing a 0.335 three-point field goal percentage on the season, which ranks no. 222 in the country. Can Pitt build on the Canisius game, which saw them hit nine of their 16 attempts from beyond the arc?

They should certainly have their opportunities to do so, but they should not fire at will. Rather, Pitt will want to be selective in taking three pointers and wait for the open looks. In Wake Forest’s two worst losses of the season–Boston College and Charlotte–they allowed just an average of 15 attempts per game, but they allowed a 0.367 three-point percentage.

Pitt, meanwhile, has been pretty good about limiting their attempts, especially while they’ve been struggling from deep. While mired in a deep three-point slump, the Panthers have taken fewer than 20 three point attempts in five straight games. In fact, they’ve taken more than 20 just three times all season.

Given their deep struggles from three (hitting just 0.288 from deep), it is great to see that Pitt’s offensive philosophy under Capel stresses a lower volume of three pointers with an emphasis on open looks. Compare that approach with the 2017-18 team in Kevin Stallings’ second season at Pitt, during which the Panthers took fewer than 20 free throws in just seven of their 32 games, despite ranking no. 308 in the country in three-point field goal percentage.

Look for Pitt to be selective in taking three pointers again tomorrow like they have all season. And if Murphy can build on his momentum from the Canisius game, in addition to any contributions from Champagnie or Trey McGowens, the Panthers should be in good shape.

Pitt needs big performances from Eric Hamilton and/or Terrell Brown.

Through 12 games, Wake Forest has a +46 rebound differential, and they rank at no. 74 in the country with just 425 rebounds allowed through 12 games. That includes an even more impressive no. 37 rank with just 107 offensive boards allowed.

Meanwhile, Pitt has allowed 162 offensive rebounds this season, which ranks no. 314 in the nation. With a dominant rebounding seven-footer in Sarr, Wake Forest has a player who can provide major matchup problems for the Panthers, who are already weak when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities for opponents.

Pitt relies significantly on gang rebounding, and actually, their top two rebounders this season on a per-game basis are Champagnie (6.2 rebounds per game) and Au’Diese Toney (4.7). Still, against elite height, it is going to be very important for Pitt to have significant contributions from their big men–not just on the boards, but also in terms of protecting the paitn.

Terrell Brown has shown his potential in blocking and altering shots, but consistency has been an issue for him. Since Sarr is a good scorer, it will be imperative to keep him from scoring easily in the paint–especially if and when he is able to snag offensive boards. Look for Brown and Hamilton to help out on the boards and protect the paint defensively.

The Panthers and Demon Deacons tip off at noon at the Petersen Events Center, and will be broadcast on AT&T Sports Net. Keep checking in with DreamBackfield.com for more Pitt coverage, and head over to the message boards for more Pitt discussion!