Pitt Hoops Game Preview: Pitt vs. Northern Illinois

The Pitt men’s basketball team returns to action tonight with a home matchup against the Northern Illinois Huskies, 10 days after falling 64-46 to no. 1 Louisville on the road in their second ACC matchup of the season.

That game marked Pitt’s final ACC contest before January, and tonight the Panthers begin a two-week stretch of home games against mid-major opponents. Following tonight’s game against Northern Illinois Huskies, Pitt is set to challenge Binghamton on Friday, Dec. 20, and Canisius on Monday, Dec. 30.

After the game against Canisius, Pitt opens up the heart of their conference schedule with a home matchup against Wake Forest on Saturday, Jan. 4 at the Petersen Events Center. The next few games leading up to that contest will be vital to the rest of the Panthers’ season, as Jeff Capel’s young team will have three more opportunities work out some of the kinks before hitting the always arduous ACC slate.

Should Pitt win its final three out-of-conference games, they would enter ACC play with a 10-3 record. The Panthers won just four conference games a year ago and zero conference games in 2018, so a successful ACC campaign is far from guaranteed for Capel’s squad.

But entering ACC play with double-digit wins combined with moderately successful play in-conference could give Pitt their first shot at postseason play since Jamie Dixon’s final year at the helm for the Panthers.

The road to a 10-3 record starts tonight at home with the Huskies. Let’s break down the team and the game matchup.

Fast Facts

• This will be Pitt’s first matchup with Northern Illinois going back at least as far as the 1949-50 NCAA basketball season.
• The Huskies have three NCAA Tournament appearances in their history, with the most recent of those appearances coming in 1996-97.
• Northern Illinois is coached by Mark Montgomery, currently in his ninth season as head coach. He’s posted a career record of 111-154 thus far.
• To Montgomery’s credit, he took over a Northern Illinois program that was in shambles: the Huskies averaged an 8-24 record over the five seasons preceding his hiring. They had never won more than 10 games in a season over that stretch.
• Montgomery’s Northern Illinois teams won just five games in each of his first two seasons at the helm, before he turned them around to become a middling, if not formidable MAC team. Since the beginning of the 2013-14 season, the Huskies’ record is 101-103.
• Further, Montgomery’s teams have shown capable of playing competitively with tough opponents: the Huskies notched their first victory over a top-25 ranked team of Montgomery’s tenure with a 77-75 home win over no. 14 Buffalo on Jan. 22, 2019.
• Northern Illinois is currently ranked no. 160 in the KenPom rankings, while Pitt sits at no. 72.

Northern Illinois Preview

Northern Illinois has faced just one high-major program so far this season, as they lost 70-52 to Iowa State on Nov. 12. Still, the Huskies gave Iowa State a run for their money early on, as they led for the first 22 minutes of game play (including a double-digit first-half lead) before the Cyclones took a lead with 18 minutes left in the second half and did not look back.

As was the case with Nicholls State and Robert Morris, Northern Illinois is not a team that Pitt can look past on their way toward the start of ACC play, as the Huskies can be dangerous when given the opportunity.

The Huskies are led by senior guard Eugene German, who is about as consistent an offensive weapon as Pitt has faced so far this year. German, who averages 20.3 points per game in 2019, has put up at least 20 points per game in each season dating back to his sophomore campaign. He has started 71 games over the past two-plus seasons, and posted a very respectable 0.473 field goal percentage while shooting 0.375 from beyond the arc.

German has earned high marks for each of his three years at Northern Illinois, landing himself on the MAC All-Freshman team in 2016-17, followed by back-to-back MAC All-Conference Second Team honors in each of the past two seasons. He is a legitimate NBA prospect and a sure-fire scorer, and he could give Pitt fits tonight.

Beyond German, no other Northern Illinois player is averaging more than 8.1 points per game. Senior forward Lacey James is having a nice season nonetheless, posting 8.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game to lead all Huskies. The 6-foot-9 forward is the tallest player on the team, meaning that Pitt will likely have a more favorable matchup on the glass than they had in their most recent game against Louisville.

Much like Pitt, Northern Illinois is also still ironing out the particulars of their rotation. They have three players who have started every game thus far–German, James, and sophomore guard Trendon Hankerson. Beyond those three, six other players have played in at least eight games while averaging 10 minutes per game or greater.

However, none of those other role players are averaging even eight points per game. Defensively, however, Northern Illinois has had a lot of early success, limiting opponents to just 62.1 points per game while holding opposing teams to a very strong 0.277 three-point field goal percentage. Given that Pitt is a weak three-point shooting team, that could pose a tough threat for the Panthers to overcome.

Pitt’s Keys to the Game

So what does Pitt need to do to beat Northern Illinois tonight? Here are the Keys to the game.

It all starts with Eugene German.

Here’s a crazy stat heading into tonight’s game. Through 10 games, German has scored double-digit points 10 times. Through 10 games, all other scorers have scored double-digit points jut 14 times. All other Huskies scorers.

Northern Illinois has had almost as many games with just German in double digits as they had with more than one scorer in double digits. It’s clear that the Huskies offense runs through German–almost to a fault.

German has scored 203 of the Huskies’ 682 points on the season, good for 29.8 percent of all scoring. If you can limit his effectiveness, you give yourself a good chance to win. Look no further than Northern Illinois’ past two games for confirmation of that fact: German was held to 16 points in each game, shooting an inefficient 7-of-19 against Saint Mary’s and just 6-of-15 against UC-Davis.

Northern Illinois lost both of those games. And it isn’t hard to imagine why–their best scorer by leaps and bounds scored just 32 points on 34 shots. He took just four free throw attempts in those two games. I suspect that Pitt will emphasize a similar strategy tonight.

It will be interesting to see whether Xavier Johnson or Trey McGowens draws the duty of covering German, as both have shown flashes of being great defenders, though McGowens is more consistently an excellent defender. However, both players have had issues with taking quick, cheap fouls. Especially given the necessity of limiting German’s ability to get to the line, it will be imperative for whoever covers German to avoid giving up easy fouls.

Panthers need to find open looks, avoid contested three pointers.

There’s no other way to say it: Pitt has been dreadful from long-distance this year. Their 0.259 three-point field goal percentage ranks no. 345 in the country as of the writing of this article. With each passing game, the absence of Jared Wilson-Frame is felt more, as last season’s 0.331 percentage from beyond the arc feels like a fading memory.

Perhaps surprisingly, Johnson has been Pitt’s best deep shooter this year with a 0.414 three-point percentage, compared with poorer marks for McGowens (0.267) and Ryan Murphy (0.309). Of course, this presents Pitt with a major problem, since Johnson is clearly at his best when he is moving the ball or driving through the lane, rather than settling for deep jump shots.

So what is Pitt to do? Well, hopefully McGowens and Murphy can start to find their shot from deep moving forward. Perhaps Justin Champagnie or Au’Diese Toney can become a more consistent threat from downtown. For now, though, Pitt simply can’t afford to waste offensive possessions by taking shots that quite simply, they aren’t likely to hit. Especially against a team that defends the three-pointer well, it is imperative that they look for higher percentage looks.

Assuming that Pitt will take their fair share of threes tonight, they would be wise to patiently wait for open looks, using Johnson and McGowens’ strengths to draw spare defenders into the paint and look for the open men on the wing.

Eric Hamilton has become an offensive threat down low, and they would be wise to target him early and often underneath the basket, particularly against a relatively small Northern Illinois team. Terrell Brown should be given the chance to get back into a rhythm heading back into conference play as well, as he’s shown flashes of offensive prowess at times. Even Abdoul Karim Coulibaly has showed some nice offensive touch in his limited opportunities thus far.

Pitt will be the bigger team tonight–they should play that way. Offensively, it would give them their best chance to win the game, and maybe even win big.

Pitt needs a bounce-back game from its key role players.

This key is less specific to the Northern Illinois game, and more broadly aimed at having a strong 2019-20 season overall. It’s no secret that Johnson and McGowens are the engine that run the Panthers. Hamilton has been coming up aces lately.

But aside from those three players, Pitt has struggled. After a torrid start to the season, Brown has cooled off dramatically over the past several games. After putting up six straight 10+ point games and emerging as one of Pitt’s top scorers, Champagnie has just one point on 0-for-13 shooting over his past two games. Toney, having been relegated to a bench role, is shooting just 0.383 overall and a miserable 0.214 from beyond the arc. Murphy is shooting just 0.238 from beyond the arc over his past eight games. Gerald Drumgoole has been out for several games with a hurt ankle, and it remains unclear when he will return.

Needless to say, outside of Pitt’s star sophomore duo and their graduate transfer center, things have been rough. Of course, these players won’t struggle all season. And Pitt is sure to win a couple of upsets during ACC play when several of these players are clicking at the same time.

But before that can happen, they need to bounce back in the out-of-conference slate, and perhaps restore some of their lost confidence heading into the ACC portion of the schedule. That starts tonight with a more favorable matchup against Northern Illinois.

Can Pitt win tonight? Yes, and they probably should. That’s not to say that they should take the game lightly. But getting the roles players back on track moving forward is absolutely a priority for Capel’s team and will be a key not just tonight but throughout the rest of the month of December.

The game tips off tonight at 7 p.m. from Pittsburgh, Pa. at the Petersen Events Center. The game will be televised on the ACC Network with a radio broadcast on 93.7 The Fan. Follow along with @PittHoops on Twitter for live game coverage.